La UPME presentó para comentarios a medidos de enero el Plan de Abastecimiento de Gas Natural. Frente a la caída en las reservas, en cinco años se presentaría un déficit de oferta.
23 de enero de 2020. De acuerdo con los estudios técnicos realizados por la Unidad de Planeación Minero Energética (UPME), de no incorporarse nuevas producciones de gas natural, a comienzos de 2024 se presentaría un déficit del energético.
Según, el organismo de planeación esa sería la fecha máxima para que el país cuente con un nuevo punto de suministro de gas natural importado, esta vez sobre la costa Pacífica, señala el Plan de Abastecimiento de Gas Natural.
Esta situación se presenta en medio de una caída sostenida de las reservas del hidrocarburo desde 2012. Efectivamente, en ese año las reservas de gas eran de 5,7 terapiés cúbicos (TPC), con una relación reservas producción (R/P) de 13,4 años. Al cierre de 2018 las reservas habían caído a solo 3,7 Tpc y una R/P de 9,8 años.
No obstante, la entidad señala que, a diferencia de años anteriores, “en el análisis se han incorporado hechos nuevos del mercado lo que genera un panorama más optimista frente a lo considerado en versiones anteriores y tienen implicaciones de interés en las obras que finalmente se recomiendan en el estudio técnico.”
Efectivamente, gracias a la mayor producción de campos menores especialmente en el Valle Inferior del Magdalena, a la posibilidad de realizar los proyectos piloto de fracking en yacimientos no convencionales, la incorporación de gas metano asociado a los mantos de carbón y la adjudicación en 2019 de nuevos bloques por parte de la Agencia Nacional de Hidrocarburos, se esperaría que en el mediano y largo plazo se puedan incorporar nuevas reservas, que retrasen la pérdida de autosuficiencia.
Obras prioritarias
El Estudio Técnico de la Unidad ratifica, además, que las obras adoptadas mediante la Resolución 40006 de 2018 deben ejecutarse con el fin de asegurar el abastecimiento y garantizar la confiabilidad del sector de gas natural en el mediano plazo en el país. Las obras que se ratifican en el estudio son:
- La infraestructura de importación de gas del Pacífico y todas las obras necesarias para transportar dicho gas al suroccidente y resto del país;
- La infraestructura necesaria para asegurar el transporte de gas proveniente de los nuevos hallazgos del Valle Inferior del Magdalena y de la planta de regasificación de la costa Atlántica, como lo es la bidireccionalidad del gasoducto de Promigas en el tramo Barranquilla – Ballena;
- La infraestructura necesaria para la bidireccional del gasoducto de TGI en el tramo Barrancabermeja – Ballena;
- Los refuerzos de transporte entre Mariquita y Gualanday, necesarios para asegurar el abastecimiento de gas natural a la región del Tolima Grande; y
- Los refuerzos necesarios para asegurar el transporte de gas a la región aguas abajo del ramal Jamundí (Valle del Cauca).
Expectativas de oferta en el corto y mediano plazo
Por otra parte, la UPME identificó aquellas corrientes de gas natural que tienen posibilidad de ser inyectadas al Sistema Nacional de Transporte y que no han sido declaradas al Ministerio de Minas y Energía. A continuación se reseña los resultados de ese trabajo entre los productores y la Unidad:
Canacol Energy: Puede disponer en promedio de 100 millones de pies cúbicos diarios (MPCD) adicionales a los declarados en 2019 a partir de diciembre 2022. Se necesitaría una capacidad de transporte adicional, con dos alternativas: i) un refuerzo al gasoducto existente desde Jobo a Barranquilla, y ii) la construcción del gasoducto Jobo – Medellín.
Lewis: Este operador puede entregar hasta 25 MPCD a partir de diciembre de 2019. Igualmente, el operador espera producir 35 MPCD desde finales del 2020 y llegar hasta 50 MPCD desde finales del 2022.
Bloque VIM 22: El operador de este bloque podría tener disponibles hasta 30 MPCD a partir de enero de 2025, pero se necesitaría una infraestructura de por lo menos 100 km de longitud para entregar el gas al SNT.
Drummond: Puede disponer de cantidades de gas para venta a partir de enero de 2021 del orden de 25 MPCD y con posibilidad de incrementarse progresivamente.
Ecopetrol: La Compañía estima a partir de enero de 2024 puede tener una producción en promedio entre 70 y 80 MPCD, provenientes de recursos offshore en el campo Orca, cerca a La Guajira. Así mismo, la Empresa busca un socio estratégico para desarrollar los campos offshore Kronos, Gorgon y Glaucus (KGG), que en el largo plazo pueden llegar a aportar entre 400 y 700 MPCD.
Finalmente, el Estudio señala que “la Infraestructura de Importación de Gas del Pacífico en la Bahía de Buenaventura es la que presenta menor Costo de Arrepentimiento, respecto a la alternativa de no hacerlo y contar con recursos contingentes de gas natural.”
No obstante, sostiene que en el caso de una posible modificación de la fecha de puesta en operación de la Planta de Buenaventura, se pueden tener alternativas, como: i) Asegurar la entrada de las corrientes que se mencionaron; ii) Abastecer con transporte de GNL en cisternas el suroccidente colombiano, en caso que la Planta de Regasificación entre en operación con anterioridad al gasoducto Buenaventura – Yumbo; y iii) consumo de combustibles líquidos para respaldar Obligaciones de Energía Firme del parque térmico del interior del país.
También agrega que, con el fin de asegurar el abastecimiento y aumentar la confiabilidad del sistema nacional de transporte, recomienda las bidireccionalidades y conexión de los tramos Barranquilla – Ballena y Barrancabermeja – Ballena, teniendo en cuenta que no se requieren mayores inversiones y presentan un mayor beneficio.
“Las obras de infraestructura propuestas permiten conformar un mercado nacional de gas natural que debe ser complementado con la institucionalidad respectiva y un régimen regulatorio que facilite estos intercambios”, concluye el documento.
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