La inversión colombiana en exploración de hidrocarburos en 2021 estará concentrada mayormente en la región Caribe; mientras que la inversión en producción se destinará, principalmente, a Meta y los Santanderes.
29 de enero de 2021. La Asociación Colombiana del Petróleo (ACP) presentó el más reciente informe económico ‘Tendencias de Inversión E&P en Colombia 2020 y Perspectivas 2021’, el cual proyecta para 2021 una inversión en exploración y producción de petróleo y gas entre USD 3.100 y 3.450 millones, 51% superior a la de 2020, año atípico por la pandemia de la Covid-19 y la caída de los precios internacionales del crudo. No obstante, esta inversión es cerca de USD 300 millones inferior a la registrada entre 2015 y 2019.
Con las inversiones de 2021 se espera perforar 40 pozos exploratorios (22 más que en 2020) y mantener una producción de petróleo de 780.000 barriles diarios y 1.050 millones de pies cúbicos diarios de gas, cifras similares a las del año pasado.
El informe, elaborado con base en la planeación y presupuestos preliminares de las empresas encuestadas por la ACP, evidencia el creciente interés por el gas natural. Es así que, para este año el 45% del presupuesto total de exploración estará enfocado en la búsqueda de este energético.
Asimismo, se proyecta destinar USD 400 millones para desarrollar producción de gas, lo cual representa el 15% de la inversión total en producción de oil & gas y mantiene la tendencia creciente en el enfoque hacia el energético gaseoso.
“Un repunte en la inversión del sector es una buena noticia, pues no solamente la industria del petróleo y gas garantiza la generación de recursos fiscales que le permitan a la Nación y a las regiones apalancar la reactivación económica y social, sino que además garantiza el autoabastecimiento del país, que va a requerir energéticos para su reactivación industrial”, dijo el presidente de la ACP, Francisco José Lloreda Mera.
A nivel regional, la inversión exploratoria se concentrará en el Caribe, principalmente en Córdoba, y en su mayoría en tierra firme, en donde parte importante de los recursos tendrán como foco la búsqueda de gas natural. De hecho, el Valle Inferior del Magdalena ya produce el 24% del gas que consume el país.
Por su parte, la inversión en producción estará dirigida, principalmente, al departamento del Meta, que continuará siendo el principal receptor de inversión, seguido por los Santanderes, Casanare, Antioquia, Putumayo y Huila.
“El gas natural toma cada vez más fuerza en la matriz energética, por eso no sorprende que su participación venga creciendo en los últimos años. Colombia tiene potencial geológico, pero para que se desarrolle es necesario impulsar el crecimiento de la demanda, lo que implica medidas que faciliten la comercialización oportuna, el transporte competitivo hacia centros de consumo y promover la competencia en igualdad de condiciones. Esto será clave para la confiabilidad que se requiere en un proceso de transición energética”, explicó Lloreda Mera.
No obstante, el gremio resaltó que Colombia corre el riesgo de dejar enterradas el 50 por ciento de sus reservas de petróleo y gas, si no aprovecha la actual ventana de tiempo.
Además de la oposición al fracking por parte de algunos sectores de la opinión pública, las demoras en las consultas previas, los trámites de licencias ambientales y los bloqueos de las comunidades a las actividades de exploración y producción, hacen que desde que se asigna un área hasta que se extrae el primer barril fácilmente transcurren entre 6 y 8 años. De acuerdo con estudios de la ACP, por cada año que se reduzca ese tiempo, a la Nación le ingresarían 1,5 billones de pesos adicionales.
Finalmente, el informe destaca que el 95% de las inversiones de 2021 se llevarán a cabo en tierra firme, mientras que en offshore y yacimientos no convencionales (YNC) las inversiones estarán orientadas a desarrollar estudios y otras actividades previas a la perforación exploratoria, la cual se prevé para 2022.
Clima de inversión
El informe también presentó los resultados de la encuesta sobre el clima de inversión del país, el cual evalúa 11 aspectos fundamentales para el sector: prospectividad, competitividad bienes y servicios, aspectos fiscales, disponibilidad de infraestructura, aspectos contractuales, ambientales, sociales, estabilidad política, seguridad regulatoria, consulta previa y seguridad en las operaciones.
Este año la calificación general promedió 5 ubicándose en el rango aceptable, registrando una disminución frente a la otorgada en 2019 (6 / buena). De los 11 elementos evaluados, solo queda una percepción totalmente favorable del país, la estabilidad política, la cual mejoró al pasar de un 63% y 65% en 2018 y 2019, respectivamente, a 75% en 2020.
La percepción de prospectividad, que había sido siempre una fortaleza del país, ahora es observada mayoritariamente como neutral o indiferente. En el resto de los aspectos evaluados prima una percepción catalogada entre neutral y débil.
“Las respuestas de las empresas encuestadas nos invitan a seguir trabajando, en conjunto con el Gobierno, en los temas estructurales que se requiere mejorar para retomar el interés de invertir en Colombia. Es necesario impulsar el crecimiento del mercado del gas natural, reducir las tarifas de oleoductos, contar con mayor seguridad regulatoria, revisar temas contractuales y optimizar los procesos de licenciamiento ambiental, entre otros aspectos que son fundamentales para que el país pueda atraer inversión, desarrollar su potencial en hidrocarburos y generar los recursos necesarios para la reactivación económica y social”, concluyó el presidente de la ACP.
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