Naturgas, Acipet y Campetrol hacen un paneo sobre el sector del gas natural en Colombia. Su papel en la transición energética y el futuro de la oferta, entre otros temas.
17 de agosto. El mundo tiene claro que el gas natural es el combustible de la transición energética, y así lo señalan las cifras. De acuerdo con la Agencia Internacional de Energía, para 2040 la demanda de gas natural crecerá 25% a una tasa anual de 1,2%; es decir aumentará cuatro veces más que la demanda de petróleo.
Colombia no es ajena a esa tendencia y, como en el resto del planeta, el gas natural será protagonista en la ruta de la trasformación energética en que está empeñado el país.
Según cifras del Ministerio de Minas y Energía, el primer trimestre de 2021 cerró con 10.350.737 usuarios de gas natural, de las cuales 10.155.755 son familias; 189.110, comercios, y 5.872 pertenecen al sector industrial.
“En los últimos veinte años Colombia pasó de tener 1,9 millones de usuarios a a lograr más de 10,3 millones. En su mayoría, familias de estratos 1, 2 y 3 que cambiaron la leña y el carbón en sus cocinas por un combustible más limpio”, explicó Andrés Sarmiento Grisales, presidente encargado de la Asociación Colombiana de Gas Natural (Naturgas).
Sarmiento Grisales también destacó el uso del gas natural en el sector transporte. Durante 2020 se convirtieron más de 18 mil vehículos a GNV, para llegar a un acumulado histórico de 622 mil vehículos que se han cambiado a este combustible en el país.
Cabe resaltar que de esa cifra cerca de 3.000 vehículos son de transporte pesado, los cuales incluyen pasajeros, camiones, tractocamiones y volquetas.
Sarmiento también destacó la recién sancionada Ley 2128, la cual le da un impulso al gas natural en el país, al considerarlo un combustible limpio, que el gobierno debe apoyar tanto en su expansión dentro de la población como en el transporte, donde le otorga gabelas impositivas y obliga a que el 30% de la nueva flota de los sistemas de transporte público de pasajeros sea a GNV.
Reservas, el gran dilema
No obstante, Colombia se enfrenta a una caída persistente de las reservas de gas natural desde hace 10 años. A diciembre de 2020, el país contaba con 3 terapiés cúbicos de reservas y una relación reservas producción de 7,7 años, las más bajas desde 2007, de acuerdo con las estadísticas que publica la Agencia Nacional de Hidrocarburos.
Luego el debate en el que se ha enfrentado el país es cómo revertir esa situación. Por parte de la Unidad de Planeación Minero Energética (UPME) se plantea la construcción de la planta de regasificación del Pacífico y el gasoducto Buenaventura – Yumbo, con un costo estimado entre la 800 y mil millones de dólares.
Si bien se ha determinado que esa inversión sea asumida por los usuarios beneficiados, no está claro qué demanda se beneficiaría y de cuánto serían las tarifas para determinar si económicamente es viable.
La otra incógnita es la construcción del gasoducto, toda vez que atraviesa áreas naturales protegidas y comunidades indígenas, lo cual pone en duda la viabilidad de las licencias ambientales y sociales.
En contraposición, la industria plantea darle prioridad al desarrollo de los recursos con que cuenta el país, básicamente los yacimientos convencionales, el potencial off shore y los yacimientos no convencionales (YNC). Entre los dos últimos, las reservas se podrían multiplicar por seis en el escenario más conservador.
En cuanto a la exploración costa fuera, Nelson Castañeda, presidente Ejecutivo de la Cámara Colombiana de Bienes y Servicios Petroleros (CAMPETROL), dijo que de aquí al 2022 la industria invertirá 1.600 millones de dólares, y señaló que en los próximos meses se perforarán los pozos Gorgon 2, Cumbia 1 y Uchuva 1.
Dentro de los YNC, Luis Guillermo Acosta, director Ejecutivo de la Asociación Colombiana de Ingenieros de Petróleos (Acipet), señaló que Colombia cuenta con las mejores condiciones para su explotación, por sus características de roca en la formación La Luna, en el Magdalena Medio, solo precedida en calidad por las formaciones Marcellus, en Estados Unidos, y Vaca Muerta, en Argentina.
“En YNC, el país cuenta con reservas de gas natural entre 7 y 26 terapiés cúbicos”, señaló Acosta, y agregó que hay otras dos formaciones prometedoras: Tablazo y Rosa Blanca, pero están a mayor profundidad, lo que implicaría mayores costos.
Dado este potencial, Acosta recomendó que en caso que se construya la planta de regasificación del Pacífico, ésta debería ser flexible; es decir que sirva tanto para importar como para exportar gas y que se puede mover, para que en caso necesario se pueda trasladar al Caribe, pues el dirigente gremial no descarta que el país termine exportando gas, “porque tenemos mucho potencial”.
Importancia del sector para el país
Dadas las voces que desde la política han señalado su aversión al sector de hidrocarburos en el país, Castañeda resaltó la importancia que representa la industria para el país.
Dentro de las cifras que mencionó, están que los hidrocarburos han representado en los últimos diez años el cuatro por ciento del PIB nacional, y el 5% si se incluye la refinación.
Además, señaló que en el último año, el sector le ha reportado al Gobierno Nacional el 9% de los ingresos, el 28% de la inversión extranjera directa y el 45% de las exportaciones.
En cuanto a regalías, en los últimos cinco años la industria ha generado 26 billones de pesos. No obstante, Castañeda lamentó que de los 22 billones de pesos de regalías que están para ejecutar en el período 2021-2022 solo se han ejecutado dos billones.
No obstante, la industria sigue adelante. Andrés Sarmiento concluyó diciendo que en gas natural hay previstas inversiones por 3.000 millones de dólares en los próximos años, y que Naturgas ha identificado 12 proyectos en 363 municipios que podrían llevarle gas natural a más de 366 mil familias, con una inversión de $200 mil millones.
Finalmente, resaltó que, con los campos actuales y los nuevos desarrollos en costa afuera, yacimientos convencionales y no convencionales, el país tendrá el gas natural suficiente para asegurar el abastecimiento de hogares, transporte, comercios e industrias.
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