No hay duda de que el zar de las finanzas del gobierno, el ministro Ocampo, sabe que tiene en el Ministerio de Minas y Energía la caja registradora. Sólo Ecopetrol, en el primer semestre de 2022, gracias a los precios altos del petróleo de la actual coyuntura, reportó utilidades por $17 billones.
Por: AMYLKAR D. ACOSTA*
30 de octubre de 2022. Después de afirmaciones tan categóricas de la Ministra de Minas y Energía Irene Vélez, en el sentido que “no vamos a firmar nuevos contratos de exploración y explotación”, enfatizando que “esta decisión no es caprichosa… estamos cumpliendo una promesa de campaña”, secundada por su viceministra Belizza Ruíz, que, en un tono desafiante, les dijo a los delegados al Congreso de NATURGAS que no sabía “qué parte de esa frase no han entendido”, tuvo que salirles al paso el Ministro de Hacienda José Antonio Ocampo, afirmando que esa decisión “aún no está tomada”.
Este zambapalo en el seno del gabinete ministerial del presidente Petro mandó mensajes equívocos al mercado, que terminaron pasándole factura a la economía exacerbando la devaluación del peso, que ha pegado un brinco del 32% entre junio y octubre de este año, y a Ecopetrol, de la cual la Nación mantiene el 88,49% de la propiedad, desplomando la cotización de su acción en la Bolsa, que ha acumulado una caída del 29,42% entre el 2 de mayo ($3.252) y el 27 de octubre ($2.295).
No hay duda de que el zar de las finanzas del gobierno, el ministro Ocampo, sabe que tiene en el Ministerio de Minas y Energía la caja registradora. Sólo Ecopetrol, en el primer semestre de este año, gracias a los precios altos de la actual coyuntura, reportó utilidades de $17 billones, más de los $16,7 billones de todo el año anterior y se proyectan utilidades del orden de los $34 billones al cierre del 2022, mucho más de lo que se espera recaudar con el proyecto de reforma tributaria que cursa en el Congreso de la República.
Desde luego, Colombia no puede perder su norte, que apunta hacia la Transición Energética para contribuir al objetivo de alcanzar la carbono neutralidad hacia el 2050, pero como bien lo dijo la 26 Conferencia de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Cambio Climático (COP26) “esperamos obligaciones más estrictas bajo el principio de responsabilidad común pero diferenciada”.
El mensaje es claro: todos los países, todos a una como en Fuenteovejuna, deben contribuir a dicho objetivo, pero los mayores responsables de esta debacle, que significa el cambio climático, son los que deben hacer el mayor esfuerzo. En este contexto, cuanto hagamos en Colombia, más alentados por el voluntarismo que por el realismo, no le mueve la aguja a esta problemática de dimensiones colosales.
Y no hay que perder de vista que la Transición Energética no debe poner en riesgo la seguridad energética y aún más la soberanía energética. Esta es una de las lecciones aprendidas de la crisis que agobia a los países que integran la Unión Europea. Y de contera son muchos los estragos que se han derivado de la misma, abocándolos a una recesión acompañada de una inflación galopante (estanflación). No se puede jugar con candela.
Por todo lo anterior es que ha sido muy bien recibido el anuncio del director de Crédito Público del Ministerio de Hacienda José Roberto Acosta dejando entrever que el Gobierno nacional está reconsiderando la decisión, aupada por la ministra de Minas y Energía y su viceministra, de no más contratos de exploración y explotación de hidrocarburos.
Como es bien sabido, el Marco Fiscal de Mediano Plazo (MFMP) es la carta de navegación del Ministerio de Hacienda, y lo que ha dicho Acosta es que para que se cumplan sus presupuestos y metas es menester que la Agencia Nacional de Hidrocarburos (ANH) reanude sus rondas para ofertar y contratar la exploración y explotación de nuevos bloques en áreas con potencial hidrocarburífero.
El análisis de esos números “definitivamente serán los que guíen la decisión final en aras de esa sostenibilidad fiscal donde estos ingresos son muy importantes”, dijo Acosta refiriéndose a los provenientes de la industria de los hidrocarburos. Este anuncio disipó muchos temores, muchas dudas y sobre todo mucha incertidumbre, desatada por pronunciamientos erráticos que no le hacen bien al país.
De hecho, la propia ministra Vélez había dado las primeras puntadas en su entrevista el pasado domingo en El Espectador, bajándole el tono a sus anteriores declaraciones, advirtiendo que “no se ha tomado una decisión a futuro, el Gobierno está analizando los escenarios y las necesidades que vaya presentando el país”. Y añadió que “en cuanto a la exploración de petróleo y gas, este es un tema que está en análisis para ver qué necesita el país mientras se lleva a cabo esa transición”.
Dicho de otra manera, esta vez no descartó la firma de nuevos contratos de exploración y explotación.
*Exministro de Minas y Energía y miembro de Número de la ACCE.
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