Cinco grandes proyectos de GNL a tener en cuenta en 2020

GNL
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Cada año Gastech presenta un informe sobre los principales proyectos de GNL a desarrollar en el mundo.

Por: SUSAN SAKMAR*

2 de febrero de 2020.   Comenzando 2020, los desarrolladores de proyectos de gas natural licuado (GNL) enfrentan muchos vientos en contra, incluidas las tensiones comerciales entre los EE.UU. y China, y las preocupaciones por el exceso de oferta, ya que Australia y la primera ola de proyectos estadounidenses continúan aumentando la producción, deprimiendo los precios mundiales del gas natural.

Sin embargo, numerosos proyectos se dirigen a tomar una decisión financiera de inversión (FID) en 2020 y los expertos de la industria esperan que entre 80 y100 millones de toneladas por año (mtpa) tomen FID, lo que haría de este otro año récord para la realización de proyectos.

¿Qué proyectos prevalecerán en este mercado desafiante? Aquí está un vistazo a los 5 mejores proyectos de GNL para ver este año.

OB LNG, tercer proyecto en el Ártico de Novatek

El año pasado presentamos el proyecto Arctic LNG-2 de Novatek, que alcanzó la FID de 21 billones de dólares en la península de Gydan en septiembre de 2019.

Arctic 2 es el segundo proyecto de GNL a gran escala de Novatek, después del lanzamiento exitoso de Yaml LNG hace dos años. Este año destacamos un tercer proyecto de GNL propuesto por Novatek con un nombre funcional: OB LNG.

A fines de 2019, Novatek anunció que había obtenido la licencia para el área de Bukharinskiy, ubicada en la península de Gydan y parte en las aguas poco profundas de las bahías de Ob y Taz, en la región autónoma de Yamal-Nenets.

Con unas reservas estimadas en 1.190 millones de metros cúbicos de gas natural y 74 millones de toneladas de líquidos, la nueva área limita con las otras áreas licenciadas de Novatek en la península de Gydan.

El director financiero de Novatek, Mark Gyetvay, dijo que la fecha objetivo para la FID en OB LNG es la segunda mitad de 2020. Con el éxito de Yamal LNG y Arctic 2 LNG, no hay duda de que Novatek tiene la experiencia y los recursos para llevar a cabo otro gran proyecto de GNL.

Planes de expansión de GNL de Qatar Petroleum

Mientras que Australia superará a Qatar como el principal productor de GNL en 2020, el país asiático no está dispuesto a renunciar a su primer lugar sin luchar.

Qatar Petroleum, de propiedad estatal, anunció en noviembre de 2019 que tiene la intención de expandir su capacidad de producción de GNL a 126 mtpa para 2027, como resultado de una nueva evaluación de su gigantesco campo de gas natural North Field.

Qatar espera aumentar la producción a 110 mtpa para 2024 y, según los informes, ha seleccionado a las compañías petroleras internacionales para una participación en sus planes de expansión; sin embargo, también ha indicado que está dispuesto a hacerlo solo.

Rovuma LNG de ExxonMobil Mozambique

El año pasado presentamos Rovuma LNG en Mozambique. Liderando el proyecto está ExxonMobil, la principal petrolera de los EE.UU., como operador, y el ENI de Italia.

Si bien la FID no se presentó en 2019, el proyecto otorgó el contrato principal de EPC y recibió un compromiso de los desarrolladores de un gasto inicial de 520 millones de dólares.

El presidente de Mozambique, Filipe Nyusi, indicó que la FID en el proyecto de 30 mil millones de dólares se anunciará en el primer semestre de 2020.

Sempra’s Port Arthur LNG

El 6 de enero pasado Sempra Energy y Saudi Aramco anunciaron que habían firmado un Acuerdo Interino de Participación en Proyectos (IPAA) para el proyecto de exportación de GNL Port Arthur en desarrollo en Texas.

El IPAA sigue un acuerdo de jefes (HOA) firmado en mayo de 2019 para que Saudi Aramco compre 5 mtpa de GNL y tome una participación del 25% en el proyecto.

Promocionado como «otro hito» para el proyecto, el IPAA establece ciertos mecanismos para que las partes trabajen a medida que cada parte avanza hacia la FID, que Sempra espera para junio de 2020. La fase inicial del proyecto está autorizada para exportar 11 mtpa y Sempra presentará ante la FERC la expansión potencial para duplicar la capacidad a 22 mtpa al agregar dos trenes de licuefacción más.

Expansión de Plutón GNL

En 2020 se espera que Australia se convierta en el mayor exportador de GNL del mundo, superando las 77 mtpa de capacidad de producción de Qatar.

El Preludio de GNL de Shell fue el último de los ocho nuevos proyectos de exportación de GNL que se pusieron en marcha en Australia entre 2012 y 2018.

Después de una desaceleración en las aprobaciones en los últimos años, algunos proyectos australianos parecen reafirmarse en 2020. Se espera que Woodside sancione el proyecto de gas Scarborough en 2020, lo que respaldará la expansión de Plutón de GNL con la expectativa de que el tren 2 estará listo para mediados de la década de 2020.

También se espera que Shell tome la FID en el campo de gas Crux para surtir las instalaciones de Prelude FLNG, y Santos para surtir la planta de Darwin LNG.

Teniendo en cuenta que el negocio del GNL es un negocio a largo plazo, si las proyecciones de demanda son correctas, la industria necesita prepararse con otra ronda de FID de proyectos en 2020 para evitar un déficit de suministro a fines de la década de 2020.

Con muchos proyectos respaldados por grandes patrocinadores, 2020 parece ser otro año sólido para las aprobaciones de proyectos de GNL, aunque sea un año desafiante para los precios.

*Susan L. Sakmar, abogada, ha trabajado en una variedad de entornos legales, corporativos, sin fines de lucro y académicos. Actualmente es profesora visitante de derecho en el Centro de Derecho de la Universidad de Houston y es consultora independiente de GNL.

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