Colombia llegó a posicionarse como el quinto mayor exportador de carbón en el mundo, y el mineral llegó a ser el segundo renglón de exportaciones del país, desplazando al café, pero ahora el futuro del mineral se ve negro.
Por: AMYLKAR D. ACOSTA
21 de febrero de 2021. Sin el carbón no habría sido posible la primera revolución industrial, consistente en el salto de la manufactura a la maquinización de los procesos productivos, gracias al invento de la máquina a vapor.
El coque, un derivado del carbón metalúrgico, como elemento reductor, servía de materia prima en la fundición del acero en las siderúrgicas para la fabricación de las máquinas y las locomotoras, y el carbón térmico servía como combustible para avivar el fuego en las calderas para producir el vapor y así ponerlas en marcha. Así surgió la industria del carbón, demandado por las fabricas, el transporte marítimo y los ferrocarriles.
Después del boom del carbón, que llegó a su clímax en las postrimerías del siglo XIX y se prolongó hasta el estallido de la primera guerra mundial, es desplazado por el petróleo, luego de que este emergiera aupado por la invención del motor de combustión interna.
El petróleo, al ser menos contaminante, más fácil de almacenar y transportar, le ganó la partida al carbón, el cual fue relegado a un segundo plano, hasta la crisis energética de 1973 causada por el embargo petrolero decretado por parte de los países árabes productores de petróleo en contra de los países aliados de Israel, encabezados por EEUU. Estos vieron la necesidad de diversificar su matriz energética para no depender sólo del petróleo, en ese momento en manos de la OPEP, impulsando la producción y el consumo del carbón y el gas.
No es por casualidad que justo en la década de los 70 se da en Colombia el arribo de la petrolera Texas tras los enormes yacimientos de gas de La Guajira, e INTERCOR, filial de la petrolera Exxon, que emprende el primer desarrollo a escala industrial en Colombia de la extracción de carbón para la exportación en El Cerrejón, también en La Guajira.
En el primer caso, Texas se asoció con Ecopetrol, en el segundo, Intercor se asoció con Carbocol, empresa del Estado que terminó vendiendo su 50% de participación en la Asociación a precio de gallina flaca.
Ahora, una vez más, el carbón se está viendo desplazado a consecuencia del compromiso contraído por la comunidad internacional en 2015, a través del Acuerdo de París, en el seno de la Conferencia de las Naciones Unidas sobre el cambio climático (COP21), de descarbonizar la economía, migrando de las energías de origen fósil, que tanto contaminan el medioambiente, hacia las fuentes no convencionales de energías renovables (FNCER) y limpias. Ello situó al petróleo y al carbón en el lugar equivocado de la historia.
De allí la tendencia a la contracción del mercado de uno y otro y la descolgada de sus precios internacionales. Las propias empresas ligadas al negocio del petróleo y el carbón han entendido que su perspectiva hacia el futuro está pasando vertiginosamente de castaño a oscuro.
Ya lo había predicho el ex ministro de petróleos de Arabia Saudita Ahmed Zaki Yamani, que “la edad de piedra terminó no por falta de piedras y la era del petróleo terminará no por falta de petróleo”. Esta frase puede hacerse extensiva al carbón.
Colombia llegó a posicionarse como el quinto mayor exportador de carbón en el mundo, al punto que el mismo llegó a desbancar del segundo renglón de exportación al café desde el año 2000, constituyéndose, junto con el petróleo, en el mayor dinamizador del crecimiento de la economía colombiana y en el mayor generador de divisas del país y de ingresos tanto para la Nación como para las entidades territoriales.
Después del más largo ciclo de precios altos del carbón, llegando a cotizarse a US $102.35 la tonelada en 2011 y de la máxima producción histórica en 2016 de 91 millones de toneladas, ambos se han venido en barrena debido a la notable reducción de la demanda. En 2020 tocaron fondo tanto el volumen de producción como el precio, registrándose una baja hasta los 53.7 millones de toneladas y US $29 la tonelada, en su orden.
Ello, desde luego, afectará las previsiones de ingresos esperados tanto por parte de la Nación como por los departamentos y municipios, dado que el Presupuesto General de la Nación (PGN) así como el Presupuesto bienal del Sistema General de Regalías (SGR) tomaron como base un mayor volumen de producción y precios mucho más altos, los cuales han tenido que ser revisados a la baja por fuerza de las circunstancias. A guisa de ejemplo, el cierre de las minas que opera Prodeco en el Cesar le significará al SGR 357.000 millones de pesos anuales menos.
El primer revés para el carbón colombiano se presentó en el mercado estadounidense, que era el segundo destino de nuestro mineral después de Europa. En Estados Unidos el gas natural abundante y barato productos del uso de la técnica del fracking, convirtió a ese país, como dijo el expresidente Barack Obama, en la Arabia Saudita del gas natural, y remplazó al carbón en sus centrales térmicas de generación.
Se calcula que en Europa y EEUU la demanda de carbón ha caído 39%, aproximadamente, con tendencia a una mayor caída dado el compromiso que han contraído de alcanzar la neutralidad de sus emisiones hacia el año 2050.
*Exministro de Minas y Energía y miembro de número de la ACCE.
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