La variabilidad y la volatilidad de los precios internacionales del petróleo se da en un mercado de países ganadores, los productores – exportadores, y de perdedores, aquellos que lo importan, y el impacto se siente en toda la cadena de los hidrocarburos.
Por: AMYLKAR D. ACOSTA
31 de julio de 2021. En los últimos meses, los precios del crudo se han elevado ostensiblemente como consecuencia de un efecto combinado de la cartelización de la oferta por parte de la OPEP+ y de la reactivación de las dos economías más poderosas del mundo: EEUU y China, y la consiguiente mayor demanda del oro negro.
Y con el aumento de los precios del crudo sobreviene el aumento inusitado del precio de sus derivados, entre ellos el gas licuado del petróleo (GLP), más conocido como gas propano.
A ello ha contribuido, además, la alta demanda de GLP desde Asia: de una parte, la China que está demandando grandes cantidades de propano para su creciente industria petroquímica y de la otra el crecimiento de la demanda de India, que lleva varios años ejecutando un exitoso programa de sustitución de leña por GLP en las familias más pobres del país.
El incremento de los precios internacionales del GLP ha llevado a elevar en forma significativa los precios regulados a los que vende Ecopetrol su GLP al mercado colombiano.
Esta situación implica para el país importantes retos regulatorios, no solo para mitigar el impacto de esta alza de precios en los más de 12 millones de colombianos que hoy lo utilizan para cocinar, sino también para lograr el necesario propósito de ampliar la participación de este combustible limpio la nuestra canasta energética, frente a los compromisos en materia de reducción de los gases de efecto invernadero en un 51% hacia el 2030.
Debe resaltarse que, enhorabuena, fue expedida la Ley 2099 de 2021, mediante la cual se amplió el espectro de la Ley 1715, incluyendo el GLP y el gas natural como combustibles de transición dentro de la canasta energética.
En la nueva ley se establecen incentivos para la masificación del uso de estos combustibles limpios y se fijan obligaciones concretas al gobierno nacional en este sentido, atendiendo los compromisos globales del país para atender el riesgo que implica el calentamiento global.
Se incluyen en esta iniciativa parlamentaria decisiones tan importantes como la obligatoriedad de ejecutar sendos programas para la sustitución de leña, carbón y residuos por gas combustible y otro programa de generación de energía eléctrica para las zonas no interconectadas, que hoy usan principalmente el diésel como combustible para las plantas de generación, costando más el transporte que el mismo precio.
Pero estas decisiones de política pública del legislativo se enfrentan con una amenaza: el alza desproporcionada en los últimos meses del precio regulado del GLP que vende Ecopetrol.
En julio el incremento del precio del GLP frente al mes anterior fue del 25%, acumulando ya la impresionante cifra de un incremento de más del 80%, de diciembre pasado a junio de 2021.
Ello le pone un freno de mano a la reconversión del consumo de la leña y el carbón vegetal por GLP, en momentos en los que se incrementa la deforestación en el país, uno de los principales causantes de las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero que se pretenden disminuir. Ello va a contrapelo de la reciente recomendación de la Agencia Internacional de Energía (AIE) de usar GLP para reducir la contaminación del aire doméstico, “porque es limpio y salva vidas”.
Es motivo de preocupación que esta situación de precios altos del GLP se agravará finalizando el año, cuando llegue el invierno en el hemisferio norte, con los consabidos mayores aumentos en los precios del GLP por el incremento en la demanda para calefacción. A ello se añade la trepada de la cotización del dólar, que está rozando los $4.000.
Así que no da espera la toma de decisiones gubernamentales para mitigar el coletazo de los impactos del precio internacional en el mercado de este servicio público en nuestro país. Es tanto más urgente la intervención del gobierno, habida cuenta que los hogares han visto menoscabados sus ingresos en el último año a consecuencia de la pandemia.
El abanico de decisiones está allí y el país cuenta con las experiencias vividas con los combustibles líquidos, cuyos precios internacionales también han implicado la toma de decisiones como el establecimiento de promedios móviles para los precios internacionales y para el tipo de cambio.
En el sector del gas natural la situación se ha manejado en la medida en que los precios tienen vigencia anual y no mensual, como sí sucede en el GLP y los combustibles líquidos.
Finalmente, queda Ecopetrol, que viene reduciendo sostenidamente su oferta de GLP al mercado, debido a que decidió usarlo en procesos internos que le resultan mas rentables.
Sería conveniente para el país que Ecopetrol reconsiderara estas decisiones que obligarán al país, en el segundo semestre de 2021, a importar cantidades crecientes de GLP para completar la oferta al mercado nacional.
Ya es excesiva el alza como para tener que sumarle a esta crítica situación el costo del transporte del GLP importado desde EEUU hasta los puertos colombianos.
La responsabilidad social de la empresa estatal también cobija a los 12 millones de usuarios que podrían verse forzados a volver a utilizar la leña para cocinar sus alimentos.
*Exministro de Minas y Energía y miembro de número de la ACCE.
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Assim, o Bitcoin é uma moeda digital descentralizada que permite transações sem intermediários, uma característica das criptomoedas. Ele usa a tecnologia “peer-to-peer”, o que facilita a transação entre as partes envolvidas, que mandam e recebem Bitcoins através de uma carteira digital que tem um endereço Bitcoin, algo parecido com uma conta bancária tradicional. De tal forma que o dólar oscilou na última década entre R$ 1,60 e R$ 4,00. Assim, embora o poder de compra interno esteja mantido com a inflação sobre relativo controle, este poder de compra pode ser reduzido em momentos de crise quando comparado a mercados internacionais. Não há como ser categórico em uma previsão quanto ao futuro, mas o fato é que o Bitcoin abriu portas e fez muita gente perceber que o dinheiro como conhecemos hoje nunca mais será o mesmo.
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