Después de la polémica por la compra de ISA por parte de Ecopetrol en 14,23 billones de pesos para la adquisición del 51,4%, dos temas han de tenerse en cuenta para un análisis objetivo de esta transacción: lo referente al ámbito comercial y su efecto en las finanzas del Estado; y la estrategia de Ecopetrol hacia su proyecto de descarbonización.
Por: ÓSCAR DÍAZ MARTÍNEZ*
26 de agosto de 2021. El primer tema, y quizás el más debatido, es el endeudamiento con el cual la estatal ha procedido, dejando poco espacio para continuar con la exploración en busca de incrementar sus reservas de hidrocarburos.
El país en la última década ha disminuido de forma significativa el programa de exploración. De acuerdo con Campetrol, en lo que va del 2021 se han perforado únicamente 12 pozos, incluyendo a Ecopetrol y todas las empresas que tienen actividad en el país.
En cuanto a la autosuficiencia energética, se requiere el reemplazo de las reservas que se consumen al año con la producción de petróleo y gas, y una de las formas de lograrlo es con actividad exploratoria, precisamente para el hallazgo de nuevos yacimientos.
El concepto es muy simple: si lo miramos desde el abastecimiento básico en nuestros hogares, lo que se toma de la despensa se debe reemplazar, de lo contrario las existencias se agotarán.
El segundo tema es la integración vertical, que busca la estatal a lo largo de toda la cadena de valor del ciclo energético, tal como lo ha venido haciendo principalmente con el petróleo.
Ahora, uno de los segmentos que más valor agregado le han adicionado a Ecopetrol fue la creación de Cenit en 2013, con lo que se da la integración del sistema de transporte por ductos a lo largo del territorio nacional (Ocensa, Oleoducto de Llanos, Bicenterio y Oleoducto de Colombia).
Lo anterior es relevante dado que, con la compra de ISA, Ecopetrol busca ocupar un espacio bien posicionado en el transporte de energía. Si con Cenit fue necesario una consolidación, con ISA el camino está muy bien recorrido. Se podría decir entonces que Cenit es al transporte de hidrocarburos como ISA al transporte de energía.
Lo que viene es que Ecopetrol siga trabajando con sus proyectos de generación a través de otras fuentes de energía como la solar o la eólica, las cuáles ya están en marcha, más todo lo relacionado con el hidrógeno como materia prima de otras formas no dependientes de los combustibles fósiles, todas ellas que podrían correlacionarse con el “upstream”.
Si bien es cierto que no realizar actividad exploratoria es preocupante por la autosuficiencia energética, que no ha sido fácil de mantener, por otro lado, es una noticia alentadora seguir avanzando con una estrategia en la transición hacia renovables y otras fuentes de energía, cuyo único fin es migrar hacia la descarbonización, teniendo en cuenta que la meta de Ecopetrol al 2050 es llegar a cero emisiones netas.
Lo peor que le puede pasar a una empresa como Ecopetrol es dejar pasar el tiempo y las oportunidades. Incrementar la actividad exploratoria es una necesidad del presente y con ISA se cristaliza una buena oportunidad mirando al futuro. El vaso se seguirá mirando medio lleno o medio vacío, lo cuál es y seguirá siendo parte de nuestra naturaleza humana.
*Presidente de la Junta Directiva de Acipet
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