Las 10 principales tendencias del petróleo y el gas

Industria
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  • El suministro de petróleo y gas fue nombrado como la principal tendencia a observar en 2019. Los problemas con Venezuela e Irán, así como la salida de Qatar de la OPEP, seguirán en la atención mundial durante los próximos seis meses por lo menos. A continuación el resto de la lista de acuerdo con el informe 2019 de Global Data.

23 de enero de 2019.   La segunda tendencia en la lista es la perspectiva de la energía, que en los últimos años ha incluido el aporte de influencers del gas en línea, así como los informes de la industria y el periodismo. Por supuesto, se incluye el trabajo que hace Oil & Gas IQ.

Las políticas de energía son la tercera tendencia e incluyen decisiones tomadas por organizaciones como el Departamento de Energía de los Estados Unidos. El aumento de la supervisión federal con respecto al metano y las aguas residuales, y el retorno a una mayor autonomía en las partes productoras de petróleo de los EE. UU., destinadas a alterar la producción de petróleo en 2019. Los cambios en los rangos de la OPEP también pueden alterar la forma en que sus 14 estados nacionales gestionan sus políticas energéticas.

Por otro lado, la situación política en el Reino Unido puede afectar las políticas relacionadas con la exploración de petróleo en el Mar del Norte y la energía nuclear en Escocia en los próximos años.

El aumento del gas natural licuado (GNL) y la presión sobre los gobiernos y las empresas estatales, así como las empresas privadas, para luchar por la sostenibilidad ambiental significan que el suministro de gas natural estará en la vanguardia de la mente de todos. China, entre otras naciones, ha estado desarrollando su infraestructura de gas natural  e invirtiendo en importaciones de GNL.

Por eso, algunos analistas etiquetaron el 2019 como el año en que la oferta mundial de GNL superará la demanda, junto con una importante reacción contra el carbón, lo que incrementará aún más la demanda de gas. Con la Unión Europea preparándose para una caída en los precios del gas, el mercado del gas natural podría ser una de las áreas más interesantes de la industria este año. 

El precio del petróleo está, por supuesto, en la lista de tendencias a observar en 2019, y con el precio del crudo Brent de aproximadamente 30 dólares por barril menos que el valor de hace tres meses, el mercado es tan inestable como siempre. Las recientes sanciones del gobierno de Trump, y la subsiguiente relajación de muchas de ellas, han agregado otro elemento de volatilidad. 

Fracking, particularmente en el Reino Unido, es un término cargado para muchos, y aunque es extremadamente popular en los EE. UU., ha estado lleno de problemas en Europa occidental, con prohibiciones totales en muchos países. Está por verse si el fracking producirá petróleo en Gran Bretaña continental.

Tan importante para el mercado del combustible como el suministro es la demanda de petróleo. A fines de 2018, Estados Unidos era el mayor consumidor de petróleo crudo del mundo, y utilizaba 19 millones de barriles por día. China, un segundo distante, usó 10,5 millones, mientras que Japón usó 4,5 millones por día. La demanda ha aumentado cada año desde que comenzaron los registros y superó los 100 millones de barriles en todo el mundo en 2018.

Una tendencia mucho más reciente que las demás en el informe de Global Data es la de la transición energética, o el cambio en el uso de combustible dentro de una nación o región, ya sea la captación de energía solar o la implementación de un programa nuclear. Algunas áreas a observar incluyen el crecimiento (potencial) del mercado de vehículos eléctricos.

Finalmente, los inventarios de petróleo y, en menor medida, los de gas natural y carbón, valdrán la pena vigilar a medida que avanza el 2019. En los EE. UU., 2018 tuvo muy poco efecto en el inventario de petróleo. Los inventarios han sido generalmente altos, pero se anticipa que volverán a sus promedios más habituales.

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