Transición energética, motor de la recuperación económica post Covid-19

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El secretario Técnico del WEC Colombia, Daniel Díaz, hace una evaluación de la gran encuesta global del Consejo Mundial de Energía (WEC por su sigla en inglés) sobre el impacto de la Covid19 en el sector energético.

Por: DANIEL DÍAZ*

24 de abril de 2020.   Tal como lo plantea la presentación del estudio, en el que participaron compañías energéticas de 53 países, incluido Colombia, “es importante mirar más allá de la urgencia inmediata y evaluar las implicaciones actuales de la crisis para evitar el pensamiento en blanco y negro o los lentes color rosa. El futuro no va a ser todo pesimismo, y la esperanza realista es un plan de acción.”

El Consejo Mundial de Energía Colombia (WEC Colombia) tiene en estos momentos 76 afiliados entre empresas, academia y organizaciones del sector, por lo que la herramienta de análisis de la oficina mundial constituye una carta de navegación para ayudar al sector energético del país a manejar mejor la crisis y navegar en un futuro incierto con los mejores elementos de juicio.

Desde luego, la gran pregunta que circula hoy en el sector energético mundial es ¿Cómo podemos salir del choque Covid-19 como una sociedad más resistente y continuar acelerando una transición energética global exitosa?  

Pues bien, lo primero es que al igual que lo direcciona nuestra organización global, en WEC Colombia ya estamos analizando estos escenarios y evaluando las implicaciones, tanto las inmediatas como las de largo plazo de la crisis en nuestros sistemas energéticos, incluida la perspectiva de la transición energética.

Replicando el mensaje global, la transición energética es imprescindible y humanizar este acto es más que obligatorio.

Sobre los resultados de la gran encuesta global nada mejor que contar con una herramienta seria y realista, que permite a los asociados del WEC Colombia no pisar terrenos movedizos a la hora de realizar la nueva planeación que implica esta inédita e inesperada coyuntura generada por la Covid19.

Datos clave de la encuesta global

Según las respuestas iniciales de la gran encuesta global del consejo Mundial de Energía, estos son algunos de los datos clave:

  • La mayoría de los encuestados no esperan volver a la normalidad rápidamente después de la interrupción máxima.
  • Un promedio del 44% en todas las regiones espera que la recuperación de la normalidad demore hasta 6 meses, y el 27% espera más de un año.
  • Además, entre los encuestados en América Latina y el Caribe, 25% prevén que no habrá un retorno a los negocios como de costumbre, sino que necesitarán adaptarse a una «nueva normalidad».
  • En todas las regiones, los principales impactos a largo plazo (> 1 año) en el sistema energético se consideran cambios en los patrones de demanda de electricidad (aumentos en el uso de electricidad residencial, disminuciones en el uso industrial y menores cargas de demanda diaria).
  • Se esperan cambios en la combinación de suministro, incluida una disminución del consumo de carbón y petróleo, un impacto en los contratos de gas de pago o interrupciones de la cadena de suministro, así como retrasos en los proyectos de construcción de plantas renovables.
  • Como la crisis afecta todas las actividades, se espera que haya beneficios en todas las regiones en forma de reducción de la contaminación y el consumo masivo.
  • Sin embargo, hay opiniones divididas sobre las perspectivas de descarbonización de los sistemas energéticos dentro de las regiones.
  • Algunos encuestados anticipan una posible demora a medida que los gobiernos responden a las presiones para reiniciar el crecimiento al revertir la acción sobre los objetivos climáticos.
  • Otros anticipan que la crisis acelerará la descarbonización a medida que los gobiernos aumenten la inversión directa en los sistemas energéticos.
  • Habrá una ‘nueva normalidad’ y el sector energético debe estar allí al frente para apoyar a todos sectores económicos y sociales.

*Secretario Técnico del WEC Colombia.

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