¿Por qué es tan difícil sustituir el petróleo?

“Debemos sustituir el petróleo, porque es un energético altamente nocivo para el desarrollo humano”, es una propuesta que ha surgido desde diversos sectores como una gran solución a los problemas que se derivan del uso de combustibles fósiles. ¿Pero es eso posible? ¿Bastaría una decisión de Estado para realizar la transición hacia energéticos más limpios?  

Por: ERIK GIOVANY MONTES PÁEZ*

27 de agosto de 2021.   Desde hace algunos años he tenido la oportunidad de participar como conferencista en el Programa de Formación de Líderes Energéticos del WEC Colombia, y la conferencia que he ofrecido en varias ocasiones la he llamado precisamente como el título de esta columna: ¿Por qué es tan difícil sustituir el petróleo?

La necesidad de petróleo que tiene nuestra sociedad debe analizarse desde diferentes puntos de vista, no solamente pensando en el petróleo como fuente de energía, sino como materia prima de una enorme cantidad de productos que usamos a diario, y como un fuerte motor de la economía nacional, pues la sustitución del crudo implica retos que van desde lo tecnológico hasta lo social.
La canasta energética colombiana de 2020, según cifras publicadas en el “BP Statistical Review 2021”, esta conformada por un 31% de petróleo, 28% de gas natural, 22% de hidroelectricidad, 15% de carbón y 3% de energías renovables.

Es importante destacar que el petróleo ocupa el primer renglón, pero que registró una disminución con respecto a valores de años anteriores. Sin ir más lejos, entre el 2017 y el 2019 tuvo una participación sostenida del 35% de la canasta energética nacional. ¿Significa esto que se está dando un reemplazo del crudo en Colombia? Lo cierto es que no, pues la pandemia conllevó una disminución del consumo mundial de petróleo en torno al 10%, relacionada principalmente con una reducción del 39% en el consumo de combustible para aviones. Pero en el 2021 se espera una recuperación del consumo, motivada por la reapertura de fronteras y diversos sectores de la economía. 

Colombia produjo, en promedio, 781.352 barriles de petróleo al día durante 2020, pero tuvo un consumo diario de 347.642 barriles. Consumo que se da fundamentalmente en la carga de las refinerías de Barrancabermeja y Cartagena, donde se producen combustibles para el abastecimiento nacional. Es decir que menos de la mitad del crudo que se produce en nuestro país se destina al consumo interno, por lo cual no es de extrañarse que las exportaciones de petróleo sean un agente dinamizador de la economía colombiana.

De acuerdo con cifras del DANE, de los 31.055 millones de dólares que exportó Colombia en el año 2020, 8.754 millones de dólares ingresaron por exportaciones del petróleo, siendo éste el primer renglón en las estadísticas nacionales, seguido del carbón (4.165 millones) y el café (2.446 millones). Para Colombia, por lo tanto, el petróleo es más un commodity que un energético. De hecho, hemos apreciado en muchos momentos que una crisis en el sector de los hidrocarburos se refleja fuertemente en la economía nacional. 

Surge, por supuesto, un primer e importante reto para el país: diversificar las exportaciones, aspirando a superar esa fuerte dependencia económica del petróleo. Para esto se hace necesaria la inversión en tecnología e infraestructura, permitiendo que muchos de los procesos productivos del país puedan devenir en grandes operaciones de exportación de bienes y servicios.

Entonces, si ocurre una diversificación de las exportaciones, ¿ocurrirá la sustitución del petróleo? Aún no, pues falta superar otro gigantesco desafío, y en este caso, un desafío mundial: el del petróleo como materia prima.
Cuando se habla de “derivados del petróleo” se piensa inicialmente en combustibles. Pero, al tratar de profundizar un poco en el terreno de la petroquímica, surgen centenares de productos que actualmente se obtienen exclusivamente del petróleo. 

Solo por mencionar algunos: asfaltos, fibras sintéticas (poliéster, nylon), detergentes, cauchos, plásticos, lubricantes, velas, aislantes eléctricos, fertilizantes, grasas, aceites, solventes, acrílicos, bases de perfumes, chicle, cosméticos y hasta suplementos vitamínicos, son ejemplos de productos de uso diario que se obtienen a partir del petróleo.

¿De dónde más los podemos obtener? Ahí aparece un segundo reto que, considero, tiene unas dimensiones mayores que el primero. Pues no se trata de la adopción de tecnologías existentes para diversificar la economía de Colombia, sino de un reto mundial que necesita de descubrimientos que permitan seguir produciendo, de forma rentable y con un menor impacto, elementos habituales en la sociedad actual.

La fiebre del caucho, que tan gratamente describía José Eustasio Rivera en “La Vorágine”, conllevó procesos de devastación masiva de árboles de caucho en la Amazonía. Pero la tecnología ofreció una alternativa: la obtención del látex de forma sintética, a partir del petróleo. La matanza de ballenas era una de las opciones de antaño para la obtención de grasas, velas o jabones, pero también hubo la necesidad de hallar alternativas que permitieran preservar a estos inmensos mamíferos marinos.

En su momento, la revolución tecnológica se centró en la petroquímica. Y ahora, la enorme cantidad de productos sintéticos ha producido nuevamente problemas ambientales, sobre todo relacionados con los plásticos.

Según cifras de la Organización de las Naciones Unidas, cerca del 90% de los plásticos que se consumen en el mundo provienen del petróleo, y más de 8 millones de toneladas de plástico terminan en los océanos cada año. La idea era evitar la devastación de las especies marítimas dejando de cazar ballenas, pero la solución momentánea ahora está acabando con su hábitat. 

El reto es enorme y requiere de una mezcla de elementos que hoy apenas se vislumbran: voluntad política para tomar decisiones, investigación y desarrollo de nuevas alternativas tecnológicas, consciencia social para reducir nuestros impactos sobre el planeta, compromiso de jóvenes investigadores para transformar el mundo, responsabilidad empresarial en el manejo de los procesos industriales y un largo etcétera que permitirán, ahora sí, sustituir el petróleo.

El ideal es el de un mundo en el que la vida humana sea sostenible. No porque hayamos sacado a sombrerazos al crudo de nuestras vidas, como si la culpa de todo fuera de los que un día decidimos estudiar ingeniería de petróleos, sino porque se haya dado un desarrollo tecnológico mundial, en el que los profesionales lideren procesos de transformación en todo sentido.

Por esto es que todos los análisis prospectivos muestran al petróleo como protagonista del mercado energético en los próximos 30 o 40 años. No importa que estas proyecciones sean realizadas por empresas del sector hidrocarburos (como Shell o BP) o por entidades independientes (como el World Energy Council), pues la sustitución del crudo requiere avances tecnológicos, económicos y sociales que, hasta ahora, siguen pendientes.

*Profesor Universidad Industrial de Santander
erimonpa@uis.edu.co

1.670 Comments

  1. Get the best Heat vs Lakers odds and lines available from our recommended sportsbooks for your favorite picks of the night. Article courtesy OddsShark (@OddsShark) The defending Eastern Conference champions look slightly different this year after losing Max Strus and Gabe Vincent to free agency. Miami also happens to be disgruntled superstar Damian Lillard’s preferred destination for a trade, so things might not be done shifting. Sportsbooks have the Heat’s odds to win the championship listed at +1000.  Build your custom FanSided Daily email newsletter with news and analysis on Miami Heat and all your favorite sports teams, TV shows, and more. The Heat are one of the toughest defensive squads in the NBA and they’ll have to flex those muscles against the Lakers, who own the seventh-best offense in the league. Of course Los Angeles has taken a hit with Davis out, but James has made up the difference offensively. Miami will need to home in on James to make sure he doesn’t take over the game.
    http://www.cr7.wpu.jp/2021/11/11/blog-describes-in-articles-about-perth-casino-a-useful-note/
    The OddsJam bet tracker is free to use if you create a free account on OddsJam. The tracker automatically tracks multiple key metrics to help you improve your sports betting know-how. OddsJam tracks your bets across different sportsbooks, the closing line value of books before the window to take a bet closes, your deposits and withdrawals on different sportsbooks, and gives you access to a comprehensive betting dashboard to monitor which sportsbooks and types of picks are most profitable for you. Unfortunately, the underlying businesses of some of the most popular Reddit stocks are struggling, and their volatile share prices and high valuations makes them high-risk, speculative investments. But for investors who understand the risks and can handle a bumpy ride, here are the eight Reddit stocks generating the most buzz on WallStreetBets in 2022, according to social media tracking tool Swaggy Stocks:

  2. As with any bonus in the online casino and slots industry, there will be various terms and conditions attached. On deposit you will receive 40 of your extra spins, the additional 160 will be unlocked over the following 8 days on the website. There are also 40x wagering requirements on the bonus and the minimum deposit required to claim your freebies is £20. New Customers only; Min. deposit £15 (no Skrill Neteller); Wager bonus 40x within 15 days; Max winnings = 10x bonus; Free spins validity: 7 days; Free spins max. winnings = £100. Stake contribution as per eligible games; See full terms; Terms apply. Want to try your luck on online gaming but worried about losing your money? Slots heaven casino gets you out of this dilemma and lets you play for free without spending a penny from your pocket with its No Deposit Bonus. All you have to do is sign up for free and if you are lucky, you shall get a chance to play online without making any deposit, simply keep an eye on the promotions lobby or your registered email Ids where prospective players are directly sent lucrative bonus offers!
    http://www.shinyakushiji.or.jp/engadget-18/
    Di era yang sudah serba digital saat ini , mudah dan cepat menjadi hal yang sangat dicari oleh semua orang, maka dari itu kami situs slot gacor terpercaya memberikan kemudahan untuk seluruh member baru yang ingin melakukan pendaftaran situs slot online agar bisa mengakses seluruh permainan dengan sangat mudah. Permainan slot gacor hari ini di urutan pertama adalah cetusan dari PG Soft yaitu Mahjong Ways 2, seperti kita ketahui bahwa Mahjong Ways adalah permainan terbaik cetusan dari PG Soft sampai diperbaharui menjadi Mahjong Ways 2. Saking gacor nya permainan ini, 50% dari seluruh member kami memainkan permainan ini karena gacornya Mahjong Ways 2 ini bisa memberikan kemenangan sangat bombastis! jadi untuk kalian yang bingung mencari permainan slot terpercaya ini bisa langsung deposit dan bermain permainan cetusan PG Soft ini.

  3. © 2024 Turtle Creek Casino and Hotel. All Rights Reserved. Fine foods and breathtaking views GOLFWEEK TOP 50, GOLF ADVISOR TOP 50 Results 1 – 4 of 4 My sisters and I took our sister trip to Wind Creek Montgomery one Saturday in MarchWe were treated to live entertainment while we had our dinner. The Casino floor was alive with lights and action. Drink host were moments away. Employees were gracious and attentive. We are looking forward to our next trip.. Whether you’re looking for a quick bite or need to satisfy a bigger appetite you’ll find something to deliciously hit the spot at the Snack Bar or Kinnikkinnik Basket restaurant. You’ll never get bored with the ever-changing menu and tempting monthly specials. Home Seminole Casino Coconut Creek
    https://juliet-wiki.win/index.php?title=Bitsler_latest_dividend_news
    This is the best free bonus casino for slots players to sign up to, as you get 25 no deposit spins! No Deposit Bonuses from online casinos provide bonus cash without requiring any deposit to claim. Common amounts range from £5 to £20 credited to accounts upon sign-up or activation via bonus code. This bonus money can be used to play various casino games, allowing players to test titles risk-free. However, max winnings, game contributions, and wagering requirements on the funds limit withdrawals. As you can see from Mr-Gamble’s online casinos list, plenty of fish exist in the ‘gambling ocean’. You can still get multiple bonuses at the same time. It’s just that these offers won’t be available at the same casino. At any given time, online casinos may host anywhere between tens and hundreds of no deposit bonuses. Few internet casinos exist nowadays that wouldn’t offer any bonuses at all.

  4. Digital & Trend reports Due to regulatory reasons, you need to first deposit GBP into the Crypto App through FPS successfully before you can take GBP out and send it back to the same bank account. Crypto withdrawal to bank accounts via FPS will include a £1.90 fee per withdrawal. Δdocument.getElementById( “ak_js_1” ).setAttribute( “value”, ( new Date() ).getTime() ); Go to the sign up page from the front page’s Register button and fill in your personal information in the fields provided. Choose a password that you don’t use elsewhere. The password must contain at least 8 characters and must contain at least one number, one letter, and one special character. For those born in 2000 or before the SSN must be in the form xxxxxx-xxxx. For those born after 2000, it has to be in form xxxxxxAxxxx. Then you just confirm your identity by selecting your own online bank or mobile certificate. After that, the user account has been created and you are able to make your first deposit. This will only take a few minutes.
    https://macadamlab.ru/wiki/index.php?title=Bitcoin_wallet_online
    Those chips built mainly for crypto are designed to mine a specific cryptocurrency. For example, you can only mine Bitcoin with ASIC with a Bitcoin ASIC miner.   Today, mining cryptocurrencies requires a specialized GPU or an application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) miner. In addition, the GPUs in the mining rig must be connected to a reliable internet connection at all times. Each crypto miner is also required to be a member of an online crypto mining pool as well. When it comes to finding the best crypto mining sites, it’s crucial to look for platforms that offer detailed analytics, mining profitability calculators, and up-to-date mining pool statistics. Sites like Minerstat and NiceHash are highly regarded in the mining community for providing insights into the profitability of various cryptocurrencies, including emerging coins that are considered the best crypto to mine now.

  5. The worksheets presented here involve multiplication of two-digit numbers. Read the word problems and find the product. Apply long multiplication (also known as column multiplication) method for easy calculation. The answer of a multiplication problem is the product. Multiplication word problems are mathematical word problems that use real-life scenarios involving multiplication to find the solution. Multiplication word problems teach pupils to apply their knowledge of their times tables and build up skills in short and long multiplication. Practice the questions given in the worksheet on hcf (highest common factor) by factorization method, prime factorization method and division method. Find the common factors of the following numbers. (i) 6 and 8 (ii) 9 and 15 (iii) 16 and 18 (iv) 16 and 28
    http://www.harrika.fi/wiki/index.php?title=Huntington_act_prep
    Reimagine how your students access tutoring with around-the-clock availability of high-quality tutors. We are a 501 (c)(3) non-profit organization providing free quality tutoring and academic support and development services for students to foster the skills and mindset necessary to enhance their learning and achieve their academic goals. © 2020 Tech tutor inc. Chat with UPchieve-certified tutors in under 5 minutes, when you need them. Completely free! Summer Programs: Not only do we offer one on one tutoring through the summer to support our learners individually, but we also offer summer learning programs for reading and math. It is our goal at A+ to ensure each of our learners succeed in reading and mathematics. © 2023  by My Diabetes Tutor | All Rights Reserved Please Login or Register to add products to the cart

  6. Digital & Trend reports Taking into account how SDaaS works, you’re probably wondering: “But isn’t Software Development as a Service the same as outsourcing?” At first glance, these two solutions look very much alike. Both are designed to help companies contract custom software development services without the overhead associated with expanding their in-house teams.  Exploding internet capabilities and falling technology cost made video games and gambling games accessible to many people and in many circumstances. Sigma Software possesses technical skills, which allow us to master gambling and video games, furnish back-office operations for them, and create outstanding graphics. Our shared experience suggests that addressing complex social problems is most effective when organizing as a community of interests. In this context we’ve learned first-hand how uplifting and life-affirming it feels to be involved in such initiatives.
    http://www.harrika.fi/wiki/index.php?title=Gambling_best_solutions
    Game GuidesJan 22, 2024 Game GuidesJan 22, 2024 GameTwist Slots Free Coins & Spins Find more information about opportunities with the Summer Free For All program, visit our Opportunities for Local Food Vendors page. Interested to learn more about our thrilling online slots and casino games? Head over to the Virgin Games blog, where you can find slot tips, how-to guides and much more! Our spacious 350 sq. ft. guest room with one king bed joins modern design with casual comfort. A 32-inch flat screen TV is standard. These rooms are near elevators and designed with additional accessible amenities, including an open frame bed, lowered peephole and door latch, flashing fire alarm, and accessible bathroom. Shower chairs, toilet seat risers, audible door knockers, and TDD devices available upon request. Smoking and non-smoking rooms available.

  7. When playing at online casinos for real money, you want to know that your payments are processed securely and quickly. Many instant withdrawal casinos offer various popular payment methods that allow you to make deposits and withdrawals speedily and with little fuss.  How do enforcement agencies protect your interests at a US online casino? The agencies and control boards listed above make sure that the relevant casino and gambling legislation is followed in letter and spirit. If you play at offshore sites claiming to be legal in the US, you do not have such guarantees. If you play at any of the best online casinos reviewed on this page, you are safe. If you play at other online casinos who do not have any license from any US state, you risk losing money. Just look at the number of protections and security features that you have when you play at licensed online casino sites:
    http://bbs.sdhuifa.com/home.php?mod=space&uid=596108
    Chumba Lite won’t be for everyone. With a significantly reduced number of games and no chance to play with GC or SC, it’s more of a gaming app than a social casino. To decide if it’s right for you, compare downloading the Chumba Lite app with playing at Chumba Casino via your mobile browser below. If you believe you should have access, please contact us. I recently started playing Chumba Casino about a month ago. I won $300 twice every time I try to submit my information for verification the system just keeps loading the page and then it goes blank. I reached out to customer service and they literally sent me 8 emails everyday for 8 days straight saying “DUE TO HIGH EMAIL VOLUME” and yet here we are 2 weeks later and I still haven’t gotten a reply. What I’m trying to figure out is the part of the verification with the bank statement it says it can not be in black and white. I bank with JP Morgan Chase , when tf they started sending out color statements unless I been under a rock for the last ten years. I wish everyone luck and hope they get the winning they are rightfully owed.

  8. Most importantly though, just remember to have fun! The time you get doesn’t really matter, what matters is that you have a great time while playing. Johnny Upgrade is an exciting and unique game, so enjoy playing through it and having a blast. Spiderman: Spider Warrior Champions 46.1.2 is an Android Action app developed by Kabam Games, Inc.. Explore 200 alternatives to Champions. Champions is listed in Top 10 Best Marvel Games for Android.Collect and assemble a team of Avengers heroes and villains to win epic battles. In the end, players must defeat the final boss at the end of the map. This will require a lot of upgrades, as well as great planning and reactions if players are hoping to beat this fun yet challenging game. In the encounter battles, the player has to kill the foes randomly. Winning these battles will grant cash to the player, which he can use to purchase equipment or healing items. The Battle Mode includes an Underground Arena where the player has to complete specific actions or beat a certain character.
    http://onlineboxing.net/jforum/user/profile/312207.page
    Like playing Super Smash Bros.? You’ll like playing Brawlhalla, too. It may not have the recognizable roster of Nintendo’s beloved fighting game, but it has a similar streamlined approach to competitive action – friendly for both casual players as well as more hardcore competitive types. It has a pretty generous business model, too: all players receive access to a rotating selection of six characters for free, and you can buy more with microtransactions or earned-in-game currency. Thank you for your Feedback Sorry, your browser is no longer supported on this website. All other trademarks, logos and brand names shown on this website other than Stated are the sole property of their respective companies and are not owned by ClassicReload. Information on the ClassicReload may not be duplicated without permission.

Deja una respuesta