De buenas a primeras se le ha venido encima a los usuarios un alud de alzas en el servicio de energía eléctrica, las cuales se reflejarán en un mayor valor de la factura desde noviembre pasado.
Por: AMYLKAR ACOSTA M.*
10 de enero de 2020. Para un mayor discernimiento, empecemos por identificar los diferentes componentes de la fórmula tarifaria: el Costo Unitario (CU) = G + T + D + C + PR + R, donde G es el precio de la energía que se compra al generador, T el costo de transmisión, D el costo de la distribución, C el margen de comercialización, PR son las pérdidas reconocidas por la regulación y R el costo de las restricciones debidas a limitaciones en el transporte de la energía desde donde se genera a los centros de consumo.
Como es sabido la compra – venta de la energía eléctrica se transa ya sea a través del mercado mayorista (spot) o mediante contratos bilaterales entre generadores y comercializadores. Si algo caracteriza el mercado mayorista es la volatilidad de los precios, a diferencia de los contratos bilaterales, que le garantiza a las partes su estabilidad durante el plazo convenido. Ahora bien, los contratos bilaterales pueden ser de dos tipos: el de energía generada y el de energía contratada. Sólo en este último caso se hace exigible el cumplimiento de entrega de la energía comprometida en los términos acordados.
A guisa de ejemplo, el precio promedio en Bolsa de la energía eléctrica pasó de $116 kW/h en el junio de 2019 hasta los $390 kW/h en octubre pasado, un incremento de más de 300%. Supuestamente dicho aumento del precio se debió a una presión atribuible a la disminución del nivel de los embalses de las hidroeléctricas, situación que habría obligado a apelar a las centrales térmicas, cuyo costo de generación es mucho más elevado. Mientras tanto el precio promedio de la energía transada mediante contratos bilaterales fue de $200 el k/h.
La exposición en Bolsa
Ahora bien, el impacto sobre la tarifa al usuario final, vía G, que pesa entre 35% y 40% de la misma, dependerá de la gestión comercial del Operador de red. Cuanto más expuesto esté en Bolsa mayor será la incidencia de la variabilidad y las oscilaciones de los precios en el mercado mayorista en la tarifa.
Según el Presidente de Asociación Colombiana de Distribuidores de Energía Eléctrica (Asocodis) José Camilo Manzur, en promedio, “solamente el 12% está sujeto a la variación en Bolsa”, de lo cual se sigue que el 88% restante de la energía comprada se obtuvo mediante contratos de mediano y largo plazo. Claro está que, como lo afirma Manzur, refiriéndose a los usuarios finales, “quienes verán los impactos son aquellos comercializadores que no tengan contratos de largo plazo y que no se hayan cubierto”.
Este es el caso de Electricaribe, operador que históricamente se ha caracterizado por tener una alta exposición en Bolsa y por ello mismo sus usuarios se ven más afectados que el promedio, ya que el porcentaje del alza que se les traslada es mucho mayor. El contraste entre EPM, con una exposición del 12.4%, y Electricaribe, con el 23.2% es muy notorio. A ello contribuyó, dicho sea de paso, la contingencia de Hidroituango, dado que Electricaribe había contratado parte del suministro de energía con EPM y debido al atraso de su entrada en operación el mismo se rescindió sin que lo pudiera hacer exigible toda vez que se suscribió bajo la modalidad de pagar lo generado y no lo contratado. De allí que los más afectados con las alzas desmesuradas debido a la gran volatilidad de los precios de la energía en Bolsa son los 2.5 millones de suscriptores de Electricaribe.
Tanto los márgenes del distribuidor (D), del comercializador (C), así como las pérdidas reconocidas (PR) son relativamente estables y están regulados por la Comisión de Regulación de Energía y Gas (CREG). Por fortuna la regulación le ha establecido un tope a la pérdidas técnicas reconocidas a los operadores, actualmente del 12.5%, porque de lo contrario el castigo para los usuarios de Electricaribe sería escandaloso, ya que las suyas están alrededor del 26.85%.
Los costos de restricción
No ocurre lo mismo con los costos de restricción (R), que están disparados y el cuello de botella que da lugar a ellos radica fundamentalmente en la región Caribe, debido al rezago histórico en las inversiones en las redes de transmisión regional y local. Allí se presenta un corto circuito que impide que la energía fluya desde los centros de despacho hasta el mercado al cual se presta el servicio, con el agravante de no contar tampoco con las subestaciones necesarias para la transformación de voltaje.
Hace rato se sabe del agotamiento del Sistema de Transmisión Regional (STR) y del Sistema de Transmisión Local (STL), así como del retraso de la ejecución de las obras, particularmente las contempladas en el Plan5 Caribe, que han provocado la congestión y el atrapamiento de la energía, ante la incapacidad para que esta fluya y llegue hasta los usuarios finales.
Según el reporte con corte al 31 de julio de 2019 de XM, empresa operadora del Sistema Interconectado Nacional (SIN), se registraba un atraso de cinco años en la aprobación por parte de la Unidad de Planeación Minero – Energética (UPME) de por lo menos 20 proyectos vitales para el montaje de líneas de refuerzo del Sistema de Transmisión Nacional (STN).
En concepto de XM, “el retraso en la entrada en operación de los proyectos de expansión es una condición recurrente, lo que hace que estas obras pierdan efectividad e impacto en el sistema al momento de su entrada en operación”.
Como bien dijo la consultora Dentons Cárdenas & Cárdenas, “el objetivo principal del plan de expansión en transmisión de la UPME, el cual se renueva año a año, es que la red no pierda robustez y su debilidad se vería manifiesta ante el crecimiento en la demanda”, que es lo que ha venido aconteciendo. Ello ha provocado exorbitantes costos de restricción por cuenta de la generación por seguridad, los cuales terminan pagando los usuarios a través de sus facturas a través de la letra R, que es como se le identifica al establecer el costo unitario (CU) o tarifa de la energía que paga el usuario.
Ello, además de convertirse en un cuello de botella para la relocalización industrial que viene dándose en la región Caribe, la demanda, que crece a un ritmo 7.49%, muy superior al promedio nacional, que es del 4.1%, se ha visto estrangulada, frenando el crecimiento de la economía regional.
Los costos de restricción que acarrea este corto circuito crecieron en promedio el 70% anual, pasando, según Asoenergía, desde los $4 KW/H a $29.4 KW/H. Ello le significó a los usuarios del servicio de energía en 2018 costos de restricción (R) del orden de los US $700 millones, equivalentes, aproximadamente, a los $30 KW/H, prácticamente el mismo cargo que se paga al Sistema de Transmisión Nacional (STN), es decir la T. Según cifras oficiales, entre enero y junio de 2019 esa R le costó al usuario $15 por kilovatio, para un acumulado de $431.825 millones.
Compartimos el planteamiento del Presidente de ANDEG Alejandro Castañeda cundo sostiene que “el verdadero problema es que no existe una relación de causalidad entre quien genera el problema en el sistema y quién asume las consecuencias. Y va más lejos cuando afirma, con toda la razón que “si el problema está en las redes, la regulación debe corregirse y quien cause el problema debe asumir los costos”.
Concluyo este acápite coincidiendo con él en su aseveración que “teniendo en cuenta este panorama, se requiere en el corto plazo, que el costo de la generación por restricción en el país se asigne a quien la cause, esto unido a una mejora en los tiempos de planeación y ejecución de los proyectos de transmisión, y una mayor inversión en el desarrollo y mantenimiento de las redes”. El usuario no puede seguir siendo quien pague los platos rotos por otros.
Y, para rematar, además de las alzas atribuibles al precio de la energía (G) y los exorbitantes costos de restricción (R) se viene a añadir el pago por parte de los usuarios de los estratos 4, 5 y 6 de la sobretasa nacional de $4 por kW/h consumido con destino al Fondo empresarial de la Superintendencia de Servicios Públicos Domiciliarios (SSPD) para el “pago de las obligaciones financieras en las que incurra… para garantizar la prestación del servicio de energía eléctrica en toma de posesión en el territorio nacional” (léase Electricaribe).
Adicionalmente, las empresas vigiladas por la SSPD deberán pagar una contribución del 1% adicional a la que ya pagan a favor del mismo Fondo empresarial, la cual terminarán pagando los usuarios vía tarifa por hacer parte de sus costos.
*Exministro de Minas y Energía y miembro de Número de la ACCE
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