El exministro Amilkar Acosta se adentra en el estudio y análisis de la actual coyuntura económica y social del país, agravada por la pandemia de la Covid-19, y otea el panorama hacia el futuro, así como las acciones remediales y de mitigación de sus desastrosos efectos.
Por: AMYLKAR ACOSTA MEDINA*
11 de julio de 2020. Han transcurrido más de cien días desde el 6 de marzo, cuando la pandemia de la Covid-19 tocó a las puertas de Colombia y el Ministerio de Salud confirmó el primer contagio en Cartagena, obligando al Gobierno a tomar medidas de prevención primero, de contención después y posteriormente de mitigación, que es la fase en la que estamos, a la espera de que se aplane la curva y se llegue al pico de los contagios, sin descartar un eventual rebrote.
Las medidas de confinamiento de la población han repercutido en una virtual parálisis de la economía, afectada además por la caída de los precios y la producción tanto del petróleo como del carbón. Su impacto en el empleo, en el ingreso y en el bienestar de los colombianos no tiene antecedentes, tanto por su magnitud como por su persistencia, poniendo a prueba la estructura económica y social del país.
Según las estimaciones, optimistas por lo demás, del Ministerio de Hacienda, reveladas en el Marco Fiscal de Mediano Plazo (MFMP), la caída del PIB este año sería del –5.1%, y pensando con el deseo proyecta un efecto rebote del crecimiento que se traduciría en un incremento del PIB el año entrante de 6.6%.
Pero todo indica que el ministro de Hacienda Alberto Carrasquilla estaría, como diría el escritor mexicano Octavio Paz, a las afueras de la realidad. En efecto, según el FMI el decrecimiento de la economía colombiana en 2020 sería de –7.8% y para el año entrante su proyección de crecimiento no supera el 4.0%, yéndonos bien.
El de este año sería el peor desempeño de la economía colombiana en más de cien años y la más devastadora de las crisis, superando en sus estragos la crisis de la deuda de los años 80 del siglo XX, la de 1999 y la más reciente, la crisis financiera 2008 – 2009.
La curva de la tasa de desempleo no se aplana
Colombia había tardado 15 años, contados desde 1999, para alcanzar una tasa de desempleo de un solo dígito, pero la dicha sólo duró 6 años, entre 2013 y 2018, pues a partir del 2019 volvió a registrar una tasa de desempleo de 10,5%. Y, lo que es peor, la tasa de informalidad laboral se situó para ese mismo año en 47%.
Con la contracción de la economía la destrucción de empleo elevó aún más el desempleo y la informalidad, la mayor parte de estos ocupados por cuenta propia. Según ANIF, la pérdida de empleo formal podría situarse en un intervalo que va del 18,5% al 22,5%. Entre tanto, según la misma fuente, el 68,2% de la población ocupada en situación de vulnerabilidad eran trabajadores informales y representan el 44,8% del total de trabajadores informales del país.
Entre marzo y abril se perdieron cuatro millones de empleos, 1 de cada 5 de quienes estaban trabajando quedaron cesantes y en mayo, dado que en este último mes empezó la reapertura gradual de la actividad económica, se recuperaron 738.000.
No obstante, al flexibilizarse la medida de confinamiento, muchos de quienes permanecían inactivos retornaron a buscar trabajo, aumentando así la tasa de participación, lo cual explica que la tasa de desempleo entre un mes y el otro subió del 19,8% al 21,4%, la más alta desde que se tienen registros, la más alta de Latinoamérica y la más alta entre los 37 países que integran la Organización para la Cooperación y el Desarrollo (OCDE). Según el DANE, de los 4´694.000 desocupados en mayo, el 43,5% perdieron su empleo a consecuencia de la crisis.
El retroceso en los indicadores sociales
De acuerdo con un estudio adelantado por la compañía Kantar, el 80% de los hogares colombianos ha visto reducir sus ingresos en medio de la pandemia. Entre los meses de abril y mayo los hogares colombianos, especialmente los de los más bajos estratos, teniendo en cuenta que cada uno de ellos percibe en promedio la suma de $1.068.000 mensuales, al perder el empleo, dejaron de devengar cerca de $10,5 billones, un punto porcentual del PIB.
Ello se tradujo en un aplastamiento de la clase media, categoría en la que de acuerdo con el DANE se ubicaban en 2018 14,9 millones de personas, el 30,8% de la población, ahora venida a menos.
Según el BID, la clase media que había alcanzado a representar el 30% de la población se redujo a sólo el 12,7. Pero el golpe más demoledor se siente en el aumento de la pobreza, al dispararse desde el 29,8% hasta el desconcertante 59,5%.
Ya lo había advertido el director de Fedesarrollo Luis Fernando Mejía: “Se va a perder mucho de lo que se ha ganado en lo corrido del siglo”. Y no es para menos, una vez más el número de pobres volverá a superar al número de quienes se habían visto favorecidos por la movilidad social ascendente. Definitivamente, como lo acota Mejía, este choque, refiriéndose a la clase media, “les pega de una manera más profunda y seguramente más permanente”.
Con el propósito de salvar y rescatar a las empresas ad portas de su iliquidez, insolvencia y en no pocos casos de su liquidación, y de paso proteger el empleo y el ingreso de los trabajadores, amén de la potenciación y ampliación de los programas asistenciales del Estado enfocados a los más vulnerables, el Gobierno se ha visto precisado a aumentar sensiblemente el gasto público, a tal punto que, según el MFMP al cierre de este año, en el que se planeaba un déficit fiscal de 2,2%, este será del orden del -8,2% ($80 billones, aproximadamente).
Sumando peras con manzanas
Huelga decir que el Gobierno Nacional no ha sido claro con las cifras y ha venido jugando con ellas. Se ha llegado a afirmar por parte del Ministerio de Hacienda que el gasto extra en el que ha incurrido la Nación al amparo de la Emergencia económica, social y ambiental I y II asciende a $117,7 billones. Ello justificaría, además de la suspensión de la Regla Fiscal, que ya se hizo, elevar en 15 puntos porcentuales la deuda pública este año, desde el 50,1% del año anterior hasta el 65,6% del PIB.
Sin embargo, a juicio del Observatorio Fiscal de la Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, en plata blanca, los recursos comprometidos a través del Fondo de Mitigación de Emergencias (FOME) para sortear esta emergencia apenas sí superan los $25,4 billones (2,4% del PIB), muy inferior al esfuerzo que han hecho otros países de la región, tales como Chile, Brasil y Perú, los cuales han dispuesto de paquetes de asistencia y subsidios del orden del 5,7%, 4,6% y 4,5% del PIB, respectivamente.
Es más, dicho Observatorio fue más lejos al afirmar que este manejo acomodaticio de las cifras, en las que se están sumando peras con manzanas, viola la Ley 1712 de 2014 de Transparencia. Y tiene toda la razón, pues a lo gastado efectivamente en la emergencia (transferencia de recursos para la salud, subsidios a la nómina, pago de primas, los programas de Familias en Acción o Ingreso Solidario, etc.) no se le pueden sumar olímpicamente la “capacidad de colocación de crédito garantizado” a través del Fondo de Garantías ($60,2 billones), el “mayor desahorro permitido del FONPET a las entidades territoriales” ($1,84 billones) y medidas del Banco de la República para darle liquidez a los bancos comerciales($23 billones), entre otros, para concluir que el tamaño del paquete de estímulo fiscal del Gobierno es de $117,7 billones, una suma estrafalaria sacada del sombrero, del orden del 11,03% del PIB.
La necesidad de los “ventiladores”
Ahora bien, como lo sostiene El Tiempo, “asumir que todos los gastos extraordinarios generados por la pandemia, 2.5% del PIB, desaparecerán el año entrante es una apuesta arriesgada”. De modo que plantear, como lo hace el MFMP, que el gasto público bajará más de 3 puntos porcentuales del PIB el año entrante, desde el 23,8% del PIB hasta el 20,7% es totalmente desatentado, pues la crisis se prolongará más allá de diciembre de este año, lo que hará imperiosa la necesidad de mantener los “ventiladores” a las empresas y a la población vulnerable por un tiempo más prolongado. De otro modo se abortaría la reactivación en ciernes que empieza a mostrar los primeros retoños, aún verdes. Ello, desde luego, demandará más recursos. Tampoco es realista plantear una reducción del déficit fiscal en algo más de 3 puntos porcentuales del PIB entre este año y el entrante, pasando del -8,2% al -5,1%.
Según el MFMP, sólo en 2022 se requerirá un mayor esfuerzo fiscal tendiente a elevar los ingresos desde el 15,6% del PIB en 2020 al 17,4%, es decir 2,2 puntos porcentuales del PIB adicionales, equivalentes a $20 billones, aproximadamente. La política keynesiana que se puso en marcha, caracterizada por el activismo del Estado para dinamizar la economía, no se puede abandonar sin poner en riesgo lo alcanzado hasta ahora.
Definitivamente los tiempos del Ministerio de Hacienda no son los de la economía, cuyo cronómetro seguirá marcando las horas. No hace sentido postergar, como lo plantea el MFMP, la reforma tributaria que se requerirá para arbitrar los recursos en orden a enjugar el déficit fiscal y servir la abultada deuda que heredará la próxima administración. Esta reforma tributaria no se puede aplazar por simples cálculos políticos más allá del año entrante, con el fin de desactivar la bomba fiscal que está a punto de estallar.
Esta reforma, obviamente, además de ser estructural, debe empezar por desmontar el cúmulo de gabelas impositivas injustificadas, que le cuestan al fisco 6,6% del PIB, que han perforado la base tributaria, al punto que el Estatuto Tributario, vigente desde 1989, se asemeja más a un queso gruyere, al tiempo que debe disponer de medidas drásticas para suturar la vena rota que constituyen la evasión y la elusión fiscal. Sólo así se podrá cumplir con lo preceptuado por el artículo 363 de la Constitución Política, en el sentido que el Sistema Tributario debe fundarse en los principios de equidad, eficiencia y progresividad, los cuales, según la Comisión del gasto, creada mediante la Ley 1819 de 2016, “no cumple”.
A Napoleón Bonaparte se le atribuye esta frase: “Si quieres solucionar un problema, nombra un responsable; si quieres que el problema perdure, nombra una Comisión”. Y esto último fue lo que hizo el Gobierno, nombró una Comisión para que adelantara un “estudio de beneficios tributarios”, facultado para hacerlo por la Ley 2010 de 2019, la cual fue reglamentada por la Resolución 1046 del 27 de abril. Y en esta se dispuso que el plazo que tendrá dicha Comisión para presentar su propuesta es de 18 meses “contados a partir de la designación de los miembros expertos internacionales” y esto último sólo se dio el 17 de junio a través del decreto 855 de 2020. Es decir, que dicho plazo se extiende hasta diciembre de 2021.
Ante la reticencia del Gobierno a tramitar prontamente una “reforma fiscal de amplio espectro”, como la que se plantea en el MFMP, opta por la línea del menor esfuerzo, el de las privatizaciones, en procura de $12 billones. Como ya lo habíamos advertido, en uno de los últimos decretos–ley expedidos al amparo de la Emergencia económica, social y ambiental 2.0, el 811 del 4 de junio, previsivo el ministro Carrasquilla, se invistió al presidente Iván Duque de la facultad para enajenar “la participación accionaria del Estado… que posea en determinada empresa” listada en Bolsa.
En su capítulo II se establecieron las “disposiciones especiales para la enajenación de acciones de la Nación en sociedades inscritas en Bolsa”. Ello tiene nombre propio, se trata de un nuevo intento de vender las dos joyas de la corona, ISA y ECOPETROL, que ha sido recurrente en este Gobierno. Pero, abrigo la esperanza que esta vez, como en las anteriores, los colombianos impedirán que se vendan estos activos estratégicos de la Nación, como quien vende la nevera para ir a mercar.
Los retos de la postpandemia
Sin saber cuándo se empezará a aplanar la curva de contagios ni cuándo se alcanzará el pico de la pandemia, no obstante, ya se han dado los primeros pasos tendientes a reactivar la actividad productiva, después de casi un semestre de letargo y así recuperar la senda de crecimiento.
En el entendido que la economía colombiana deberá crecer más y mejor hacia el futuro. Entre 2010 y 2019 el crecimiento promedio del PIB fue de 3,6% y, según las proyecciones de la firma calificadora de riesgo Fitch Ratings, entre 2020 y 2029 dicho crecimiento sería de un anémico 2,6%, insuficiente para generar empleo en lugar de seguir destruyéndolo, que era lo que venía sucediendo incluso antes de la actual crisis atribuible a la pandemia.
Hemos dicho que más que una reactivación lo que se impone hacia el futuro es una reestructuración de la economía, que pasa por su modernización y diversificación, las cuales demandarán ajustes en el mercado laboral. Hay que partir de la base que así como muchas empresas sobrevivirán a la actual coyuntura, muchas otras están sucumbiendo a ella, de la misma manera que muchos de los empleos destruidos no se van a poder recuperar ni el corto ni en el mediano plazo.
De allí la importancia de la implementación por parte del Estado de un plan de choque de rescate de empresas, especialmente las micros, pequeñas y medianas, así como también se hará necesaria una estrategia que permita la creación de empleos de emergencia, así sean temporales.
Proyectos como la ejecución de un ambicioso programa de construcción de vías terciarias es un buen ejemplo de lo que se debe hacer, porque, además de ser intensivas en mano de obra, contribuyen a desembotellar amplias zonas rurales del país en donde la producción agrícola está confinada por falta de vías de acceso. Con tal fin se podría disponer de los recursos remantes que permanecen sin ejecutarse aún en el Sistema General de Regalías (SGR) cifrados en $6 billones.
Ello es tanto más urgente habida cuenta que el estímulo a la oferta sin respuesta por el lado de la demanda es insostenible. Una de las lecciones aprendidas de esta crisis es la fragilidad de un mercado laboral en el que prima la informalidad, de allí que uno de los mayores retos sea promover la formalización laboral. Y la mayor “flexibilización”, como oportunistamente la plantean algunos, riñe con la formalización, pues la misma tiende a precarizar aún más de lo que está el trabajo, so pretexto de “formalizarlo”.
Se impone también la necesidad de implementar un programa intenso de reconversión laboral, ya que muchas de las empresas, de todas las ramas y tamaños, por fuerza de las circunstancias, han tenido que introducir cambios tecnológicos, tales como la automatización y la digitalización, amén del teletrabajo, de suerte que ello puede dar pie a un desacople entre la oferta y la demanda laboral. En ello pueden jugar un papel importante el SENA y los institutos tecnológicos; es más, desde ya se pueden ofrecer dichos programas aprovechando que se prolonga el aislamiento preventivo en los hogares. Como bien dijo Schumpeter, “difícilmente se mantienen algunas de las formas de hacer las cosas que fueron óptimas antes”, lo cual lo llevó a formular su conocida teoría de la “destrucción creativa”.
Volver al campo
Mención aparte merece la atención al campo colombiano, al que desde hace tres décadas se le dio la espalda. Con la apertura atolondrada que se decretó en 1991 se arrasó con la producción agrícola y se abrió el país a la importación masiva de los excedentes agrícolas de otros países, en especial desde EEUU. El primer impacto fue la contracción del área cultivada que, excluyendo el café, se redujo en “936.255 hectáreas entre 1990 – 1999. Así las cosas, el 25% del área cultivada en 1990 había salido de la producción”.
Más recientemente, el área sembrada en el país en lugar de ampliarse se ha seguido reduciendo. Ello se puede constatar al cotejar el resultado del Censo Agropecuario adelantado en 2014, que daba cuenta de 7,1 millones de hectáreas cultivadas, con las 5,3 millones de hectáreas que reportó la Encuesta Nacional Agropecuaria (ENA) cinco años después, en 2019, de 43 millones de hectáreas con vocación agropecuaria, esto es, el 12.3%. Una vez más, el área cultivada se redujo en un 25%, esta vez en un lustro, al tiempo que el sector agrícola pierde participación en el PIB, al punto que después de haber alcanzado el 18% en 1990 hoy a duras penas contribuye con el 6.3%, la tercera parte y siempre creciendo por debajo del crecimiento del PIB total.
Ello explica que Colombia, dotada de agua, suelo y con todos los pisos térmicos, catalogada por la FAO como una de los primeros diez países en el mundo por su potencial para contribuir con la seguridad alimentaria a nivel global, después de importar 750.000 toneladas de alimentos en 1990, en 2009 ya importaba 8 millones de toneladas y diez años después, en 2019, 14 millones de toneladas. Y ello, a pesar de que en 1991 se consagró en el artículo 65 de la Constitución Política que “la producción de alimentos gozará de la especial protección del Estado”. Esto es insólito, inaudito, máxime que, como dijera el reconocido agricultor, biólogo y filósofo japonés Masanobu Fukuoka, “la alimentación y la agricultura son el frente y la espalda de un mismo cuerpo”.
Por ello, me parece de la mayor importancia la propuesta del “revolcón agrario nacional” del experto en el tema Andrés Espinoza Fenwarth y comparto su invitación a imitar el “milagro agropecuario peruano y en particular la Ley de Promoción Agraria de Estado, que declara la agricultura de interés nacional.”
Y por qué no, seguir también el ejemplo de El Cerrado en Brasil, que ha hecho de este país una potencia agrícola a nivel mundial. Para ello, el Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT) y CORPOICA pueden servir de punta de lanza en dicho propósito. Al fin y al cabo, según el mismo artículo 65 de la Constitución Política, entre las funciones del Estado está promover “la investigación y la transferencia de tecnología para la producción de alimentos y materias primas de origen agropecuario, con el propósito de incrementar la productividad”.
Claro está que estas medidas deben estar precedidas o ser concomitantes con la Reforma agraria integral pactada en el Acuerdo final con las FARC y reglamentado mediante el Decreto 902 de 2017, que tiene en el catastro multipropósito, ya en marcha, una de sus principales herramientas para lograr la formalización de la propiedad y la tenencia del 54,31% de la tierra. Esta es una oportunidad de oro, además, para poner en práctica las muy atinadas recomendaciones de la Misión Rural, que tuvo por jefe y orientador el ex ministro José Antonio Ocampo.
Epílogo
Concluyo citando un aparte de una columna del ex codirector del Banco de la República y rector de la Universidad del Norte, Adolfo Meisel, como epílogo de este texto:
“Sí, Colombia no será la misma después de esta crisis. Vista de otra forma, la pandemia es una oportunidad para construir un país más equilibrado en su desarrollo económico y social entre las regiones, estratos, grupos étnicos y géneros. Una sociedad donde cada ciudadano tenga garantizado un nivel de vida digno. Tendremos que avanzar hacia un país donde se aplane la curva de la desigualdad en las oportunidades”.
*Ex ministro de Minas y Energía y miembro de Número de la ACCE.
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