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Por: JOSÉ FERNANDO PLATA
21 de marzo de 2019. Febrero de 2019 fue importante para el mercado eléctrico en Colombia por la realización de dos subastas y el resultado alcanzado: se proporcionó la señal de expansión a 1.398 MW de energías renovables no convencionales que ingresarán en 2022. Pero lo más llamativo no fue el resultado sino el medio, ya que el mecanismo de subastas de contratación a largo plazo, diseñado para permitir el ingreso de las energías renovables, resultó fallido a causa de las condiciones de competencia fijadas en la Resolución CREG 020 de 2019.
En contraposición, fue la subasta del cargo por confiabilidad la que asignó obligaciones de energía firme a 8 proyectos de energía solar y eólica, con lo cual prácticamente el Ministerio de Minas y Energía cumplirá su meta en este aspecto.
El presente escrito profundiza sobre los interrogantes que quedan a raíz de estas experiencias respecto de la regulación del mercado eléctrico, la competencia y la transición hacia mercados anónimos y estandarizados característicos del sector financiero:
- ¿Por qué hubo baja concurrencia de comercializadores en la subasta de largo plazo?
El incentivo regulatorio para que los comercializadores participaran en la subasta, fue permitir el traslado en la tarifa del 100% de los precios de los contratos que allí se negociaran. A la fecha el 50% de los comercializadores de Colombia tienen dificultades para conseguir ofertas de contratos para atender usuarios regulados por debajo del promedio del mercado, conocido como el MC-2, lo cual permitía prever que este incentivo financiero sería suficiente para convencer a los comercializadores de participar. Sin embargo, únicamente quedaron habilitados para participar 6 comercializadores que atienden usuarios regulados.
Así, queda la siguiente duda por resolver: ¿por qué el incentivo de trasladar el 100% del precio en la tarifa, no logró atraer a más comercializadores a la subasta? Las posibles respuestas llevan a nuevos interrogantes, tales como la preparación del sector financiero para otorgar garantías, los obstáculos para que comercializadores públicos asuman compromisos con vigencias futuras y, por último, la inquietud que más le preocupa al autor: ¿será que la integración vertical de actividades de generación-distribución-comercialización, mezclada con la posibilidad de tranzar contratos bilaterales en un mercado mostrador, seguirá siendo un obstáculo en la competencia para que se desarrollen mercados anónimos estandarizados en Colombia en los términos de la Resolución CREG 114 de 2018?.
Por último, la transparencia sobre los resultados de la subasta sería de gran importancia ya que ayudaría a los comercializadores a darse cuenta de que sí es posible conseguir en los mercados anónimos estandarizados precios por debajo del promedio del mercado, es decir, debajo del MC.
- ¿Cuáles son las causas de la baja concurrencia de promotores en la subasta de largo plazo?
Desde el inicio del mecanismo hubo críticas sobre la arquitectura de la subasta de largo plazo respecto de la insuficiente duración de los contratos y el riesgo de tasa de cambio, términos que no la hacían lo suficientemente atractiva. Adicionalmente, hay un tema estructural y está relacionado con la asignación del punto de conexión como barrera de entrada para la subasta, obstáculo que surge de la integración vertical en Colombia.
Este punto fue motivo de preocupación de la Superservicios y justificó la expedición del “Manual de Asignación de Puntos de Conexión de Proyectos con capacidad mayor a 5 MW” en agosto de 2018. Así, la pregunta que queda de esta experiencia es la siguiente: ¿Cuántos promotores que sí consideraban atractivos los términos de la subasta, no pudieron presentarse porque el trámite de conexión fue dilatado por el transportador?
Un último interrogante está relacionado con la conveniencia de que el Gobierno diseñe mercados vía regulación. Desde los primeros borradores de la subasta se debatió sobre el principio de neutralidad y si era legal una subasta exclusiva para energías renovables no convencionales. El debate culminó con el diseño de criterios de resiliencia, complementariedad, seguridad energética y emisiones para definir los proyectos elegibles.
La realidad es que la pluralidad de intereses que debe conciliar el Gobierno origina estas dudas: i) ¿La complejidad de los términos de la subasta son el reflejo de la dificultad a la que se enfrenta el Gobierno al diseñar mercados y conciliar intereses?, y ii) ¿El enredo de los criterios de selección ocasionó que proyectos renovables quedaran por fuera de la competencia?
- Subastas de cargo por confiabilidad vs. Subastas de contratación a largo plazo ¿Cuál es la mejor herramienta para lograr que ingresen al mercado las fuentes renovables no convencionales?
Gracias a los últimos resultados, se podría pensar que la definición de la ENFICC a proyectos solares y eólicos, y el cumplimiento diario de las obligaciones de energía firme en vez de horario, serían suficientes elementos para que fuese el mecanismo del cargo por confiabilidad quien facilite el ingreso de energías renovables no convencionales.
Sin embargo, el bajo porcentaje de energía firme respecto de la capacidad instalada (alrededor del 10%) hace que esta herramienta sea insuficiente para que estos proyectos logren el cierre financiero, motivo por el cual es conveniente que coexistan ambos mecanismos.
En consecuencia, surge una nueva duda: ¿Debe el Gobierno aventurarse a diseñar una nueva subasta, o podría el sector privado materializar esta ventana de oportunidad? Independiente de que sea el Gobierno o el sector privado quien diseñe una nueva subasta, la última inquietud que queda de esta experiencia está relacionada con la conveniencia de exigir condiciones dinámicas de competencia para mercados nacientes.
La subasta de cargo por confiabilidad cerró a un precio de 15 (USD/MWh), significativamente inferior al precio anterior de 17 (USD/MWh), y este mecanismo ya maduro no ha tenido condiciones de competencia que cuestionen los resultados del mercado.
Sin embargo, siendo la subasta de contratación a largo plazo un nuevo espacio donde quien compraba no era el Estado sino los privados, lograr la condición de liquidez requería de una dinámica de construcción de confianza en el esquema, sin embargo, la CREG fijó condiciones de competencia estacionarios que causaron su infortunio.
Así, la última duda que le queda al autor es: ¿La fijación por parte de la CREG de criterios estáticos de competencia para cuestionar los resultados de un mercado naciente puede ocasionar un obstáculo para que se consoliden los mercados anónimos estandarizados en Colombia?
En conclusión, en febrero de 2019 ocurrieron en Colombia dos subastas en menos de una semana, un mercado naciente como era el de subastas de contratación a largo plazo y el mecanismo de cargo por confiabilidad, y los resultados de esta última permitieron enviar una señal de expansión a proyectos de energías renovables no convencionales.
Sin embargo, el intento fallido de las subastas de contratación a largo plazo como primer mecanismo cercano a un mercado anónimo estandarizado deja varios interrogantes por resolver, los cuales están igualmente relacionados con la anhelada consolidación de mercados anónimos estandarizados para transar contratos bilaterales de energía, similares a los del sector financiero, en el marco de la Resolución CREG 114 de 2018.
*Abogado, complementa su ejercicio profesional con la cátedra académica en las Universidades Javeriana, Sergio Arboleda y Externado. Actualmente es socio de Markup Consultores SAS y Consultor del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo.
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