Aunque es un mercado pequeño, el gas natural tiene un papel qué jugar en la transición energética de América Latina y el Caribe, por lo menos hasta 2035.
24 de junio de 2021. Aunque el mercado del gas natural es pequeño en América Latina y el Caribe, pues solo representa el 2,5% del consumo mundial, este energético tiene espacio para respaldar la generación de electricidad en el marco de la transición energética.
Así lo concluyó Ieda Gomes Yell, consultora Senior de FVG Energía (Brasil) e investigadora invitado senior en el Instituto de Estudios Energéticos de Oxford y vicepresidente del Grupo de Estudio Small LNG para la Unión Internacional del Gas, durante la presentación que hizo en el Congreso Colombia Petróleo y Gas 2021, realizado por Vostock Capital entre el 21 y 24 de junio.
Efectivamente, el mundo cuenta con una capacidad de licuefacción de gas natural de 850 millones de toneladas al año (mtpa), pero América Latina y el Caribe solo cuentan con una capacidad de regasificación de 39 mtpa.
En la región existen dos exportadores de gas natural licuado (GNL): Trinidad & Tobago y Perú; mientras que entre los principales importadores están Brasil, Chile y Argentina.
Actualmente, América Latina y el Caribe cuenta con quince terminales de regasificación en operación y cuatro en construcción, en Brasil, Nicaragua y El Salvador.
Aunque la mayoría de terminales son pequeñas del tipo FSRU (excepto una de gran tamaño en Panamá), en Centro América y el Caribe se está abriendo pasó la importación de GNL en contenedores para remplazar el diésel en la generación de electricidad, y en Costa Rica hay un proyecto para importar con camiones.
Casos de estudio
Dos casos que se analizaron en la presentación fueron los de Argentina y Brasil. El país gaucho tiene la particularidad que es productor e importador de gas natural debido a la estacionalidad. En invierno, la época de mayor consumo, se intensifican las exportaciones.
Para promover la producción de gas de esquisto en la región de Vaca Muerta, en 2020 el gobierno decidió ofrecer a los productores un precio de 3,5 dólares por millón de BTU (MBTU). Así, mientras el consumidor argentino residencial paga un dólar por MBTU, el estado subsidia la diferencia.
El caso de Brasil es muy similar al de Colombia, pues en el país carioca el 70% de la generación de electricidad es hídrica, pero en los últimos años ha sido afectado por sequías severas, por lo que han estimulado la generación solar y eólica, que son muy inestables, por lo cual el principal respaldo es la generación térmica, lo cual los obliga a tener almacenamiento de GNL cuando escasean las lluvias. En lo corrido de 2021 han llegado 34 cargamentos a Brasil.
Gomes concluye que América Latina y el Caribe son importadores netos de GNL, pero el energético jugará un papel importante por lo menos hasta 2035 para respaldar la generación de electricidad, debido a la volatilidad en la generación hidráulica y mientras se afianzan en la región las fuentes renovables no convencionales.
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